Commodity market report
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38 Pages

Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2015

Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2015

Report summary

The refined lead market is finely balanced for 2015 despite slight reductions in forecast consumption for this year. However, significantly reduced mine supply will curtail primary smelter output and lead to sizeable deficits in 2016 and 2017, forcing prices higher. Combined with continuing scrap tightness keeping secondary raw material costs high, the commodity price will peak during 2018 before subsiding again as the market moves back into surplus from that year onwards. Medium-term global growth will be 3.1% p.a. as many economies continue the process of recovery and investor confidence returns to the Chinese economy.

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2015 PDF - 828.02 KB 38 Pages, 27 Tables, 15 Figures
  • Slide pack lead LTO Q4 2015.pdf PDF - 700.88 KB
  • Lead Tables LTO Q4 2015.pdf PDF - 3.86 MB
  • Demand main changes lead LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 136.00 KB
  • Demand analysis lead LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 467.00 KB
  • Supply main changes lead LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 512.00 KB
  • Production rankings lead LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 219.00 KB
  • Equity Production lead LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 5.31 MB
  • Mine analysis lead LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 2.56 MB
  • Smelter analysis lead LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 1.24 MB
  • Refinery analysis lead LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 1.23 MB
  • Market balance and prices lead LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 282.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Market moves into deficit in coming years after small surplus in 2015
      • Global refined lead balance and price
      • Primary v secondary output
    • Long-term outlook
      • Global price and stocks
  • Demand
    • Overview
      • Global lead consumption
    • Review and forecast by region
      • Asia
      • China
        • Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
      • India
        • Auto sector shows strongest growth, 2 wheelers and industrial remain significant
      • Japan
        • Asian lead consumption
      • Europe
        • European lead consumption
      • North America
      • US
        • Replacement sector stable, industrial and OE sectors provide medium-term growth
      • Mexico
        • North American lead consumption
      • Latin America
        • Latin American lead consumption
        • Principal Uses of Lead
          • Batteries
          • Non-Battery
  • Supply
    • Mine Production
      • Africa
      • Europe
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • North America
      • Oceania
      • Russian and the Caspian
        • Global lead mine production capability and mine projects
        • Smelter and refinery production
          • Africa
          • Asia
          • Europe
          • Latin America
          • Middle East
          • North America
          • Oceania
          • Russia and the Caspian

In this report there are 42 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Demand
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Ebikes still lead demand in medium term
    • Industrial batteries dominate longer term
    • Demand: Image 4
    • Indian lead demand by sector
    • Vehicles to overtake industrial sector
    • Demand: Table 2
    • Demand dominated by industrial batteries
    • Auto replacement declining due to imports
    • Demand: Table 3
    • Demand: Image 9
    • US end use by sector
    • SLI replacement to offset weaker sectors
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Demand: Table 5
  • Supply
    • African lead mine capability
    • Asian lead mine capability
    • European lead mine capability
    • Latin American lead mine capability
    • Middle East lead mine capability
    • North American lead mine capability
    • Oceania lead mine capability
    • Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
    • Global lead mine production capability change
    • Global mine production capability and market adjustment
    • Analysis of the lead-zinc mine production ratio
    • Changes to possible projects listing
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Global refined lead production capability
    • African refined lead production
    • New Chinese refined capacity (forecast production, kt Pb)
    • Asian refined lead production
    • European refined lead production
    • Latin American refined lead production
    • Middle East refined lead production
    • North American refined lead production
    • Oceania refined lead production
    • Russia and the Caspian refined lead production
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