Commodity Market Report

Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2015

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14 December 2015

Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2015

Report summary

The refined lead market is finely balanced for 2015 despite slight reductions in forecast consumption for this year. However, significantly reduced mine supply will curtail primary smelter output and lead to sizeable deficits in 2016 and 2017, forcing prices higher. Combined with continuing scrap tightness keeping secondary raw material costs high, the commodity price will peak during 2018 before subsiding again as the market moves back into surplus from that year onwards. Medium-term global growth will be 3.1% p.a. as many economies continue the process of recovery and investor confidence returns to the Chinese economy.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Market moves into deficit in coming years after small surplus in 2015
      • Global refined lead balance and price
      • Primary v secondary output
    • Long-term outlook
      • Global price and stocks
    • Overview
      • Global lead consumption
    • Review and forecast by region
      • Asia
      • China
        • Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
      • India
        • Auto sector shows strongest growth, 2 wheelers and industrial remain significant
      • Japan
        • Asian lead consumption
      • Europe
        • European lead consumption
      • North America
      • US
        • Replacement sector stable, industrial and OE sectors provide medium-term growth
      • Mexico
        • North American lead consumption
      • Latin America
        • Latin American lead consumption
        • Principal Uses of Lead
          • Batteries
          • Non-Battery
    • Mine Production
      • Africa
      • Europe
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • North America
      • Oceania
      • Russian and the Caspian
        • Global lead mine production capability and mine projects
        • Smelter and refinery production
          • Africa
          • Asia
          • Europe
          • Latin America
          • Middle East
          • North America
          • Oceania
          • Russia and the Caspian

Tables and charts

This report includes 42 images and tables including:

  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Demand dominated by industrial batteries
  • Auto replacement declining due to imports
  • African lead mine capability
  • Asian lead mine capability
  • European lead mine capability
  • Latin American lead mine capability
  • Middle East lead mine capability
  • North American lead mine capability
  • Oceania lead mine capability
  • Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Ebikes still lead demand in medium term
  • Industrial batteries dominate longer term
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Indian lead demand by sector
  • Vehicles to overtake industrial sector
  • Demand: Table 2
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Demand: Image 9
  • US end use by sector
  • SLI replacement to offset weaker sectors
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Demand: Table 5
  • Global lead mine production capability change
  • Global mine production capability and market adjustment
  • Analysis of the lead-zinc mine production ratio
  • Changes to possible projects listing
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Global refined lead production capability
  • African refined lead production
  • New Chinese refined capacity (forecast production, kt Pb)
  • Asian refined lead production
  • European refined lead production
  • Latin American refined lead production
  • Middle East refined lead production
  • North American refined lead production
  • Oceania refined lead production
  • Russia and the Caspian refined lead production

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Slide pack lead LTO Q4 2015.pdf

    PDF 700.88 KB

  • Document

    Lead Tables LTO Q4 2015.pdf

    PDF 3.86 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes lead LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 136.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis lead LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 467.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes lead LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 512.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings lead LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 219.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production lead LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 5.31 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis lead LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 2.56 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis lead LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 1.24 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis lead LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 1.23 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices lead LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 282.50 KB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2015

    PDF 828.02 KB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2015

    ZIP 5.83 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 81.47 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 113.59 KB

  • Document


    PDF 511.71 KB

  • Document


    PDF 207.42 KB