Commodity Market Report

Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2018

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What’s inside?

You'll get in-depth analysis of global lead market fundamentals, with fully revised supply and consumption data including the factors that are likely to have the greatest influence on supply, demand and pricing. We analyse the changes from our previous forecasts to mine and smelter production plus refined lead demand, broken down by region, country and sector.

Why buy this report?
Get answers to your questions on lead market dynamics, including:

  • How will the continued adoption of start-stop battery technology affect lead demand?
  • Will Electric Vehicles ultimately decimate the lead battery market, and how soon?
  • How will decreased production at one of the world’s largest lead mines affect supply?

Lead mine production to 2040

17 December 2018

Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2018

Report summary

Prevailing tightness in the concentrate and refined markets is still expected to persist through 2020 before a more significant increase in mine-through refined output pushes the markets into surplus. The forecast recent increase in mine supply has not materialised with quite as much vigour as we were expecting and we have made a notable cut to future production rates at one of the world's largest mines. However, this has been offset by a number of additions and so future mine production capability has actually increased. Coupled with annual demand growth remaining at around 1.6% p.a. over the medium term, this will result in surpluses of concentrate and metal that will lead to excessive stocks of both in 2023-2024. This will put downward pressure on prices. We have also cut our long-term price.

Table of contents

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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    slide pack lead lto q4 2018.pdf

    PDF 1.50 MB

  • Document

    Lead Tables LTO Q4 2018.pdf

    PDF 4.35 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices lead LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 417.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis lead LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 627.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes lead LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 142.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes lead LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 389.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings lead LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 72.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production lead LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 6.05 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis lead LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 2.88 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis lead LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 1.30 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis lead LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 1.27 MB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2018

    PDF 687.21 KB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2018

    ZIP 6.98 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 687.20 KB

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