Global lead long-term outlook Q4 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 17 December 2018

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What’s inside?

You'll get in-depth analysis of global lead market fundamentals, with fully revised supply and consumption data including the factors that are likely to have the greatest influence on supply, demand and pricing. We analyse the changes from our previous forecasts to mine and smelter production plus refined lead demand, broken down by region, country and sector.

Why buy this report?
Get answers to your questions on lead market dynamics, including:

How will the continued adoption of start-stop battery technology affect lead demand?
Will Electric Vehicles ultimately decimate the lead battery market, and how soon?
How will decreased production at one of the world’s largest lead mines affect supply?

Lead mine production to 2040

Report summary

Prevailing tightness in the concentrate and refined markets is still expected to persist through 2020 before a more significant increase in mine-through refined output pushes the markets into surplus. The forecast recent increase in mine supply has not materialised with quite as much vigour as we were expecting and we have made a notable cut to future production rates at one of the world's largest mines. However, this has been offset by a number of additions and so future mine production capability has actually increased. Coupled with annual demand growth remaining at around 1.6% p.a. over the medium term, this will result in surpluses of concentrate and metal that will lead to excessive stocks of both in 2023-2024. This will put downward pressure on prices. We have also cut our long-term price.