Commodity market report

Global lead short-term outlook December 2016

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Report summary

The lead price slipped back in December after getting ahead of fundamentals last month. Corrections took the LME price down to $2168/t from a $2377/t peak but still above pre November rally levels. Fundamentals should start to reassert themselves after the holiday period to arrest further falls and send prices higher. Primary supply shortages have pushed spot TCs down to historic lows of sub $20/t CIF MCP flat as Chinese smelters are failed by domestic mine output. Scrap availability in Europe remains normal for the season but North America is enjoying a plentiful supply due to weather combinations reducing demand but increasing the supply of failed batteries but scrap prices stubbornly refuse to relent.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables lead STO December 2016.xls

    XLS 263.50 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook December 2016

    PDF 536.81 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook December 2016

    ZIP 619.75 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

Images

  • Lead concedes most of November's gains after getting too far ahead of fundamentals
  • Flat lead price sits at the bottom of the metals complex until July
  • Dollar strengthening and falling lead price resume their relationship from mid month
  • Contango in the cash to 3-month spread tightens and fluctuates
  • LME stocks essentially dormant from May onwards
  • Changes in regional lead consumption for Q4 2016
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
  • Changes in global supply-demand balance for Q4 2016
  • China produces a staggering one car per second in November
  • 2016 average Chinese primary and secondary smelter utilisation rates higher than 2015 average
  • Supply: Image 1

Tables

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
  • Global lead mine production (Lead in concentrate)
  • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Lead stocks, prices and premia
  • Global lead supply and demand (kt)
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 1

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