Commodity market report
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30 Pages

Global lead short-term outlook December 2016

Global lead short-term outlook December 2016

Report summary

The lead price slipped back in December after getting ahead of fundamentals last month. Corrections took the LME price down to $2168/t from a $2377/t peak but still above pre-November rally levels. Fundamentals should start to reassert themselves after the holiday period to arrest further falls and send prices higher. Primary supply shortages have pushed spot TCs down to historic lows of sub-$20/t CIF MCP flat as Chinese smelters are failed by domestic mine output. Scrap availability in Europe remains normal for the season but North America is enjoying a plentiful supply due to weather combinations reducing demand but increasing the supply of failed batteries, but scrap prices stubbornly refuse to relent.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global lead short-term outlook December 2016 PDF - 536.81 KB 30 Pages, 12 Tables, 11 Figures
  • Data tables lead STO December 2016.xls XLS - 263.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Lead key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • LME stock outflows from Busan following environmental closures of Korean secondaries
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Demand
    • China
    • Other
    • Europe
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
  • Supply
    • Raw materials market
      • Concentrate market TCs
    • Smelter and refinery news
    • Mine production news

In this report there are 23 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Lead concedes most of November's gains after getting too far ahead of fundamentals
    • Flat lead price sits at the bottom of the metals complex until July
    • Dollar strengthening and falling lead price resume their relationship from mid month
    • Contango in the cash to 3-month spread tightens and fluctuates
    • LME stocks essentially dormant from May onwards
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Changes in global supply-demand balance for Q4 2016
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Demand
    • Changes in regional lead consumption for Q4 2016
    • China produces a staggering one car per second in November
    • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Supply: Image 1
    • 2016 average Chinese primary and secondary smelter utilisation rates higher than 2015 average
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
    • Global lead mine production (Lead in concentrate)
    • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Lead stocks, prices and premia
    • Global lead supply and demand (kt)
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