Commodity Market Report
Global lead short-term outlook December 2018
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Another quiet month where the lead price moved slightly higher, a little more lower, but ended up almost where it started December on $1962/t. It did little other than track the dollar rate through the month, except briefly when refined metal supply worries were reignited by financial concerns over a major producer, but this did not have a lasting effect. Developments in mine output point to an easing of supply, certainly for the Rest of World, in Q4 2018 and will add some upwards pressure on TCs.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Lead key forecasts
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Supply-demand balances
- Refined lead premia and scrap prices
- Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
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Demand
- China
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Europe
- Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
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Supply
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Raw materials market
- Value of China's import TC plus arb has generally exceeded the domestic TC in November-December
- Concentrate market TCs
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Mine production news
- Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
- Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
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Raw materials market
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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No net change in the lead price and a quieter December than other base metalsSteady slide marks lead's year-to-date price performance to finish joint worstLead's fundamentals refuse to prevent it from being a slave to the dollar rate
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For the year-to-date, lead rarely broke away from just tracking the dollarLatter part of 2018 most dominated by cash to three-months cantangoThe 'Fear' Index is causing increasing dread among marketsMore inflows than outflows gives first monthly stocks increase for five monthsSlight increase in stocks during December but trend remains downwardsOverall stocks have continued in general decline during H2 2018Executive summary: Table 1Supply-demand balances: Table 1Chinese refined lead imports leap in 2018
- 13 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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