Commodity Market Report

Global lead short-term outlook December 2018

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21 December 2018

Global lead short-term outlook December 2018

Report summary

Another quiet month where the lead price moved slightly higher, a little more lower, but ended up almost where it started December on $1962/t. It did little other than track the dollar rate through the month, except briefly when refined metal supply worries were reignited by financial concerns over a major producer, but this did not have a lasting effect. Developments in mine output point to an easing of supply, certainly for the Rest of World, in Q4 2018 and will add some upwards pressure on TCs.

Table of contents

    • Lead key forecasts
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
    • China
    • Europe
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
    • Raw materials market
      • Value of China's import TC plus arb has generally exceeded the domestic TC in November-December
      • Concentrate market TCs
    • Mine production news
      • Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
      • Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

  • No net change in the lead price and a quieter December than other base metals
  • Steady slide marks lead's year-to-date price performance to finish joint worst
  • Lead's fundamentals refuse to prevent it from being a slave to the dollar rate
  • For the year-to-date, lead rarely broke away from just tracking the dollar
  • Latter part of 2018 most dominated by cash to three-months cantango
  • The 'Fear' Index is causing increasing dread among markets
  • More inflows than outflows gives first monthly stocks increase for five months
  • Slight increase in stocks during December but trend remains downwards
  • Overall stocks have continued in general decline during H2 2018
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Chinese refined lead imports leap in 2018
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Chinese mobile network base station installations leap to new highs
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 9

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Data tables lead STO December 2018.xls

    XLS 244.50 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook December 2018

    PDF 1.08 MB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook December 2018

    ZIP 1.09 MB

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