Commodity market report
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28 Pages

Global lead short-term outlook February 2016

Global lead short-term outlook February 2016

Report summary

Lead experienced a turbulent month with multiple factors pushing price up and down, frequently flipping between contango and backwardation on tight spreads. The global economic view had a generally depressing effect but considerably less than 38kt being dumped into LME warehouses, mostly in Europe, which rapidly knocked over $150/t of the price. Counteracting this were two large warrant cancellations which, when combined with stock additions, appeared to have markets confused over whether material was in abundance or shortage. Trading quietened down over the Chinese New Year period but the thin liquidity and low volumes of trades allowed markets to make exaggerated price fluctuations in reaction to fundamental and macroeconomic influences.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global lead short-term outlook February 2016 PDF - 465.60 KB 28 Pages, 12 Tables, 9 Figures
  • Data tables lead STO February 2016.xls XLS - 275.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Lead key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Demand
    • China
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
  • Supply
    • Raw materials market
      • Smelter and refinery news
      • Mine production news
        • Lead stocks, prices and premia

In this report there are 21 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Lead performs poorly across February, out of step with other metals
    • Lead price characterised by tight spreads and frequent switching between contango and backwardation
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
    • Price reacts strongly to additional stocks as metal continues to exit warehouses daily
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply
    • Concentrate market TCs
    • January Chinese concentrate imports 50% lower than in December
    • 2015 average Chinese primary smelter utilisation rates dropped slightly from the 2014 average
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Supply: Table 6
    • Supply: Table 7
    • Supply: Table 8
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