Commodity market report
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28 Pages

Global lead short-term outlook February 2017

Global lead short-term outlook February 2017

Report summary

Despite hitting a three-month peak mid month, lead failed to sustain the stellar price rise from the previous month, losing 3.4% of its value in February to close at $2272/t, making it the worst performer among the base metals. With the industry currently transitioning out of the winter peak demand, signals still reinforce the fundamentals pointing to sustained higher prices when raw materials shortages eventually manifest as a pinch on refined lead availability. For the moment, European secondary smelters are enjoying adequate supply of scrap but North American recyclers are suffering from high prices and scarce supply exacerbated by Asian buyers exporting scrap from the US East Coast. The appearance of calm and inactivity in stock movements could well prelude significant movements of material to off-warrant storage in anticipation of prices escalating as material shortages hit.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global lead short-term outlook February 2017 PDF - 466.39 KB 28 Pages, 12 Tables, 9 Figures
  • Data tables lead STO February 2017.xls XLS - 263.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Demand
    • China
    • US
    • Europe
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
  • Supply
    • Raw materials market
    • Smelter and refinery news
    • Mine production news

In this report there are 21 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Lead key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Lead price and dollar strength remain in sync, with a few brief departures
    • Another quiet month for LME stocks
    • LME stocks see only minimum deliveries in and out of warehouse
    • Sustained period of backwardation gives way to a small contango
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Chinese refined lead exports fall to negligible levels as domestic demand grows in last decade
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Demand
    • UK car production showing strong performance
    • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply
    • Concentrate market TCs
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Lead mine capability, adjustment and production - ROW, China and Global (kt Pb)
    • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
    • Global lead mine production (Lead in concentrate)
    • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Lead stocks, prices and premia
    • Global lead supply and demand (kt)
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