Commodity market report

Global lead short-term outlook February 2017

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Report summary

Despite hitting a three-month peak mid month, lead failed to sustain the stellar price rise from the previous month, losing 3.4% of its value in February to close at $2272/t, making it the worst performer among the base metals. With the industry currently transitioning out of the winter peak demand, signals still reinforce the fundamentals pointing to sustained higher prices when raw materials shortages eventually manifest as a pinch on refined lead availability. For the moment, European secondary smelters are enjoying adequate supply of scrap but North American recyclers are suffering from high prices and scarce supply exacerbated by Asian buyers exporting scrap from the US East Coast. The appearance of calm and inactivity in stock movements could well prelude significant movements of material to off-warrant storage in anticipation of prices escalating as material shortages hit.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables lead STO February 2017.xls

    XLS 263.00 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook February 2017

    PDF 466.39 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook February 2017

    ZIP 550.92 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
    • China
    • US
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
    • Raw materials market
    • Smelter and refinery news
    • Mine production news

Tables and charts

This report includes 21 images and tables including:


  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Lead price and dollar strength remain in sync, with a few brief departures
  • Another quiet month for LME stocks
  • LME stocks see only minimum deliveries in and out of warehouse
  • Sustained period of backwardation gives way to a small contango
  • Chinese refined lead exports fall to negligible levels as domestic demand grows in last decade
  • UK car production showing strong performance
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2


  • Lead key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Concentrate market TCs
  • Lead mine capability, adjustment and production - ROW, China and Global (kt Pb)
  • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
  • Global lead mine production (Lead in concentrate)
  • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Lead stocks, prices and premia
  • Global lead supply and demand (kt)
  • Demand: Table 1

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