Commodity Market Report

Global lead short-term outlook February 2018

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28 February 2018

Global lead short-term outlook February 2018

Report summary

Lead endured a mixed month, producing the worst price performance among the base metals despite hitting a seven-year price high at the start of the month. Overall, it lost 5.2% of value to end February at $2530/t, having largely tracked the fluctuating dollar rate with its own fundamentals superimposed. Price spreads tightened and oscillated between contango and backwardation as the price rose and fell throughout the month. Total LME stocks reduced by a further 5.6% despite a 13kt influx stunning the market on the last day of February. Just prior to that, LME stocks dipped to a nine-year low of 113kt before spiking back up to 126kt, still some 7.5kt lower than the end of January. The supply story continues to be one of limited concentrate supply. Limited Rest of World smelter cuts are making little difference to global lead fundamentals, but are indicative of overall market tightness. Ongoing TC negotiations are focused on the question of how much, rather than if, TCs should decrease.

Table of contents

    • Lead key forecasts
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
    • China
    • Europe
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
    • Raw materials market
    • Mine production news
      • Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)

Tables and charts

This report includes 22 images and tables including:

  • Lead is the trailer of the pack after hitting seven-year high
  • Lead tracks general trend in dollar rate fluctuations
  • Price spread variation continues
  • LME lead stocks reach nine-year low before large inflow
  • Continuous metal withdrawals offset by substantial inwards delivery
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Chinese refined lead imports drop to insignificant after high levels in 2017
  • Chinese vehicle production still in growth
  • Chinese ebike production
  • Chinese mobile phone installations down in 2017
  • Concentrate market TCs
  • List of secondary smelter projects comissioned in 2017 and 2018
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 9

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Data tables lead STO February 2018.xls

    XLS 257.50 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook February 2018

    PDF 509.61 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook February 2018

    ZIP 603.72 KB