Commodity market report
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28 Pages

Global lead short-term outlook January 2016

Global lead short-term outlook January 2016

Report summary

In contrast to most of last year, lead lost more value during the month than the other LME metals, following a price correction and volatile spreads partly triggered by December's dramatic stock changes. Price ranged from over $1800/t down to under $1600/t, but by month end had settled to $1670/t as world markets calmed. Producers, consumers and traders are now more clearly recognising that this year will see a significant tightness in raw material with a mine supply shortfall and a continuous scarcity of scrap batteries, reinforcing lead's fundamentals against broader commodities pessimism.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global lead short-term outlook January 2016 PDF - 512.19 KB 28 Pages, 12 Tables, 10 Figures
  • Data tables lead STO January 2016.xls XLS - 266.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Lead key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Demand
    • China
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
  • Supply
    • Raw materials market
      • 2015 Chinese concentrate imports 5% higher than in 2014
      • Lead mine capability, adjustment and production -ROW, China and Global (kt Pb)
      • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
      • Global lead mine production (Lead in concentrate)
      • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
      • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
      • Lead stocks, prices and premia
      • Global lead supply and demand (kt)

In this report there are 22 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Lead reverses recent behaviour and under-performs LME basket of metals
    • Price spreads bounce between contango and backwardation, unsettling investors
    • Open interest declines as net positions approach zero
    • Market sentiment shys away from shorts
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Stability appears on LME stock total with only small changes in cancelled warrants
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Demand
    • Chinese vehicle production up sharply since October tax incentive
    • Korean refined exports more variable during 2016; up sharply in December
    • Venezuelan vehicle production in steep decline with country's economic woes
    • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply
    • Concentrate market TCs
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Indexed monthly Chinese refined production
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Supply: Table 6
    • Supply: Table 7
    • Supply: Table 8
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