Commodity market report

Global lead short-term outlook January 2017



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Report summary

A strong start to the year saw lead head the base metals complex in a price rally driven by fresh supply concerns. The LME price peaked at $2390/t near the November high point before settling back to $2355/t at month end. A substantial single holding of LME positions and volatile trading in the run up to the Chinese New Year break stretched the cash to 3 month price spread to a six year high $52 backwardation before relaxing back to a $1/t contango. Cancelled warrants doubled to over a third to total stocks and may herald movement of tonnage from Asia to Europe. Treatment charges remained flat from last month at around $15/t CIF MCP but a reduced SHFE/LME arbitrage reduced total revenue on concentrates by 80%.

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  • Document

    Data tables lead STO January 2017.xls

    XLS 263.00 KB

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    Global lead short-term outlook January 2017

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    Global lead short-term outlook January 2017

    ZIP 540.27 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:


  • Lead steps clear of LME metals to restore December losses
  • More regular outflows from European warehouses after large December increase
  • Highest backwardation for almost six years as market feels squeezed
  • LME price tracks the dollar, oscillating from Washington policy announcements
  • Market sentiment clear as Money Managers move from shorts to longs
  • Life at last in lead stocks, hinting at possible movements from Asia to Europe
  • Large increase in Asian cancelled warrants but an overall fall in Europe ahead of tightness
  • Record production as car buyers take advantage of tax break before the end of 2016
  • Steadier growth gives increased demand for mobile base stations over previous years
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 1


  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
  • Global lead mine production (Lead in concentrate)
  • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Lead stocks, prices and premia
  • Global lead supply and demand (kt)
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 1

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