Commodity market report
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27 Pages

Global lead short-term outlook January 2017

Global lead short-term outlook January 2017

Report summary

A strong start to the year saw lead head the base metals complex in a price rally driven by fresh supply concerns. The LME price peaked at $2390/t, near the November high point, before settling back to $2355/t at month end. A substantial single holding of LME positions and volatile trading in the run-up to the Chinese New Year break stretched the cash to 3-month price spread to a six-year high $52 backwardation before relaxing back to a $1/t contango. Cancelled warrants doubled to over a third to total stocks and may herald movement of tonnage from Asia to Europe. Treatment charges remained flat from last month at around $15/t CIF MCP but a reduced SHFE/LME arbitrage reduced total revenue on concentrates by 80%.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global lead short-term outlook January 2017 PDF - 455.71 KB 27 Pages, 12 Tables, 11 Figures
  • Data tables lead STO January 2017.xls XLS - 263.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Lead key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Demand
    • China
    • US
    • India
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
  • Supply
    • Raw materials market
      • Concentrate market TCs
    • Smelter and refinery news
    • Mine production news

In this report there are 23 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Lead steps clear of LME metals to restore December losses
    • More regular outflows from European warehouses after large December increase
    • Highest backwardation for almost six years as market feels squeezed
    • LME price tracks the dollar, oscillating from Washington policy announcements
    • Market sentiment clear as Money Managers move from shorts to longs
    • Life at last in lead stocks, hinting at possible movements from Asia to Europe
    • Large increase in Asian cancelled warrants but an overall fall in Europe ahead of tightness
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Demand
    • Record production as car buyers take advantage of tax break before the end of 2016
    • Steadier growth gives increased demand for mobile base stations over previous years
    • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
    • Global lead mine production (Lead in concentrate)
    • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Lead stocks, prices and premia
    • Global lead supply and demand (kt)
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