Commodity Market Report
Global lead short-term outlook January 2019
Report summary
The lead price surged to a six-month high and price spreads narrowed as LME stocks plunged to a 10-year low, triggering anxiety over refined lead availability. The recent severe cold weather threatens to acutely exacerbate this situation with a demand spike for replacement auto batteries. ROW mine production is still set to grow significantly in 2019, despite newly released guidance on the Penasquito mine cutting forecast production. Recent increases in TCs for high-silver concentrate have not been sufficient to offset losses by Chinese smelters stemming from the narrowing of the price arbitrage, while TCs for clean, low-silver material has actually fallen.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Lead key forecasts
-
Supply-demand balances
- Refined lead premia and scrap prices
- Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
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Demand
- China
-
US
- Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
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Supply
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Raw materials market
- Value of China's import TC plus arb has fallen well below the domestic TC during January
- Concentrate market TCs
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Mine production news
- .
- Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
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Raw materials market
Tables and charts
This report includes 20 images and tables including:
- Lead produces middling performance despite strong price rise
- LME lead price breaks free of dollar rate as price reacts to falling stocks
- Cash to 3-month price spreads narrow as price escalates on refined supply worries
- Far-forward price curve flattens – but only slightly
- Strong fall in LME stocks follow December's massive cancellations
- Sharp increase in deliveries out of warehouses as stocks plummet
- Executive summary: Table 1
- Supply-demand balances: Table 1
- Supply-demand balances: Table 2
- Chinese lead imports reach 128 kt in 2018, 64% up on 2017
- Demand: Table 1
- Supply: Image 1
- Supply: Table 1
- Supply: Table 2
- Supply: Table 3
- Supply: Table 4
- Supply: Table 5
- Supply: Table 6
- Supply: Table 7
- Supply: Table 8
What's included
This report contains:
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