Commodity market report
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27 Pages

Global lead short-term outlook July 2016

Global lead short-term outlook July 2016

Report summary

A generally quiet month nevertheless saw lead follow the base metals complex on a sustained rally to reach a 13-month peak just over $1900/t, before geopolitical and macroeconomic factors reversed the trend to send prices downwards from mid month. An unremarkable July had lead closing the month just 0.8% lower than at the start. LME warehouses experienced very little activity but tightness in scrap supply on both sides of the Atlantic maintained high prices as newly-arrived North American high temperatures threaten a spike in replacement battery demand.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global lead short-term outlook July 2016 PDF - 459.29 KB 27 Pages, 11 Tables, 10 Figures
  • Data tables lead STO July 2016.xls XLS - 276.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Demand
    • China
    • India
    • US
    • Europe
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
  • Supply
    • Raw materials market

In this report there are 21 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Lead key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Lead follows the herd in initial rally but shows weakness at month end
    • Step change after Brexit vote of late June, but price and dollar exchange rate keep in step
    • Market stability evidenced by enduring cash to 3-month contango
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 5
    • Minimal material flows in or out of LME warehouses after the activity of previous months
    • LME stocks chart almost as still as a millpond
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Chinese impose 10% export duty on refined lead, but volumes not significant
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Demand
    • Chinese auto production thrives following 1 October tax break for smaller vehicles
    • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply
    • Concentrate market TCs
    • Cumulative Chinese concentrate imports increase 38% month on month
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Supply: Table 6
    • Supply: Table 7
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