Commodity market report
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28 Pages

Global lead short-term outlook July 2017


Global lead short-term outlook July 2017

Report summary

Lead trading within a narrow band, finishing July almost exactly where it started on $2281/t. The price resisted a sliding dollar, refusing to gain value despite evidence of the concentrate shortage translating into refined metal tightness. Reinforcement of this came from exchange stocks continuing to decline with the LME lead inventory falling to its lowest level since 2015. An increase in cancelled warrants suggest that this process is far from over. US scrap supply tightened even further as smelters hope summer temperatures will lead to increased battery failures and an easing of availability. Announcements by the UK and French governments of plans to ban future sales of petrol- and diesel-engined cars seized the attention of lead markets over the potential effects on demand.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global lead short-term outlook July 2017 PDF - 516.50 KB 28 Pages, 12 Tables, 10 Figures
  • Data tables lead STO July 2017.xls XLS - 271.50 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Lead key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Cash to 3-month price spread opens up into a bigger contango
    • LME lead stocks at their lowest since 2015
    • Sharp fall in SHFE stocks has levelled off for now, dependent on smelters' production performance
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
    • Declining scrap shipments from Japan to Korea as new restrictions are brought into force
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Demand
    • China
    • Japan
    • Other
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
  • Supply
    • Raw materials market
      • Concentrate market TCs
    • Mine production news
      • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
      • Global lead mine production (Lead in Concentrate)
      • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
      • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
      • Lead stocks, prices and premia
      • Global lead supply and demand (kt)

In this report there are 22 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Lead climbs a bit, drops a bit, but ends up where it started
    • Lead price decoupled from dollar value for the second half of July
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Refined lead leaving LME warehouses almost every single day
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 5
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Refined lead imports into US remain at high level
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 8
    • Chinese refined lead imports at an eight-year high
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Demand
    • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Lead mine capability, adjustment and production - ROW, China and Global (kt Pb)
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Supply: Table 6
    • Supply: Table 7
    • Supply: Table 8
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