Commodity market report

Global lead short-term outlook July 2017

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Report summary

Lead trading within a narrow band finishing July almost exactly where it started on $2281/t. The price resisted a sliding dollar refusing to gain value despite evidence of the concentrate shortage translating into refined metal tightness. Reinforcement of this came from exchange stocks continuing to decline with the LME lead inventory falling to its lowest level since 2015. An increase in cancelled warrants suggest that this process is far from over. US scrap supply tightened even further as smelters hope summer temperatures will lead to increased battery failures and an easing of availability. Announcements by the UK and French governments of plans to ban future sales of petrol and diesel engined cars seized the attention of lead markets over the potential effects on demand.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook July 2017

    PDF 516.50 KB

  • Document

    Data tables lead STO July 2017.xls

    XLS 271.50 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook July 2017

    ZIP 616.60 KB

Table of contents

    • Lead key forecasts
    • Cash to 3-month price spread opens up into a bigger contango
    • LME lead stocks at their lowest since 2015
    • Sharp fall in SHFE stocks has levelled off for now, dependent on smelters' production performance
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
    • Declining scrap shipments from Japan to Korea as new restrictions are brought into force
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
    • China
    • Japan
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
      • Concentrate market TCs
      • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
      • Global lead mine production (Lead in Concentrate)
      • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
      • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
      • Lead stocks, prices and premia
      • Global lead supply and demand (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 22 images and tables including:

Images

  • Lead climbs a bit, drops a bit, but ends up where it started
  • Lead price decoupled from dollar value for the second half of July
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Refined lead leaving LME warehouses almost every single day
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 5
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
  • Refined lead imports into US remain at high level
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 8
  • Chinese refined lead imports at an eight-year high
  • Supply: Image 1

Tables

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Lead mine capability, adjustment and production - ROW, China and Global (kt Pb)
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8

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