Commodity market report

Global lead short-term outlook June 2017

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Report summary

Lead staged a reversal of fortune in June after a dismal May. Increasing evidence of a global refined lead deficit fuelled concerns over supply and triggered a strong rally for lead to reach $2292/t. The steep increase in price shock off any linkage to dollar strength to hit a three month high and outperform the other LME base metals. Raw materials supply problems are not disappearing with treatment charges for concentrates remaining at the previous month's very low level of $40/t on the Chinese spot market. Added to this is a growing sense of scrap supply tightening in the secondary sector especially in China and the US. This situation will only become worse as a number of Chinese recyclers resume production after temporary shutdowns.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook June 2017

    PDF 522.61 KB

  • Document

    Data tables lead STO June 2017.xls

    XLS 246.00 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook June 2017

    ZIP 606.83 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

Images

  • Supply worries turn around the lead price to trigger rally from mid month
  • Correlation between price and dollar strength restored mid-May, broken mid-June by price rally
  • LME Commitment of Traders Report shows Money Managers positions closely track price
  • Despite finely balanced net total positions, Money Manager longs outnumber shorts by over double
  • Steady contango helps support off-warrant holdings
  • Large deposits into warehouse dry up, outflows continue almost daily
  • Steady decline in LME stocks resumes from mid May and continues through June
  • SHFE stocks show strong decline for the first time this year
  • Chinese refined lead imports increase massively – but aren't yet significant
  • Huge volumes of refined lead continue to land in the US
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2

Tables

  • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Lead mine capability, adjustment and production - ROW, China and Global (kt Pb)
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 9

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