Commodity market report

Global lead short-term outlook June 2017

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Report summary

Lead staged a reversal of fortune in June after a dismal May. Increasing evidence of a global refined lead deficit fuelled concerns over supply and triggered a strong rally for lead to reach $2292/t. The steep increase in price shock off any linkage to dollar strength to hit a three-month high and outperform the other LME base metals. Raw materials supply problems are not disappearing, with treatment charges for concentrates remaining at the previous month's very low level of $40/t on the Chinese spot market. Added to this is a growing sense of scrap supply tightening in the secondary sector, especially in China and the US. This situation will only become worse as a number of Chinese recyclers resume production after temporary shutdowns.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook June 2017

    PDF 522.61 KB

  • Document

    Data tables lead STO June 2017.xls

    XLS 246.00 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook June 2017

    ZIP 606.83 KB

Table of contents

    • Lead key forecasts
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
    • China
    • US
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
      • Concentrate market TCs
      • Twenty-three old mines that have been under consideration from re-activation in recent months
      • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
      • Global lead mine production (Lead in Concentrate)
      • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
      • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
      • Lead stocks, prices and premia
      • Global lead supply and demand (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

Images

  • Supply worries turn around the lead price to trigger rally from mid month
  • Correlation between price and dollar strength restored mid-May, broken mid-June by price rally
  • LME Commitment of Traders Report shows Money Managers positions closely track price
  • Despite finely balanced net total positions, Money Manager longs outnumber shorts by over double
  • Steady contango helps support off-warrant holdings
  • Large deposits into warehouse dry up, outflows continue almost daily
  • Steady decline in LME stocks resumes from mid May and continues through June
  • SHFE stocks show strong decline for the first time this year
  • Chinese refined lead imports increase massively – but aren't yet significant
  • Huge volumes of refined lead continue to land in the US
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2

Tables

  • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Lead mine capability, adjustment and production - ROW, China and Global (kt Pb)
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 9

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