Commodity market report
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28 Pages

Global lead short-term outlook March 2017


Global lead short-term outlook March 2017

Report summary

Short-term supply worries from damaged transport links for Peruvian lead concentrate plus massive LME stock cancellations supported the lead price in March, keeping it ahead of the other LME base metals in an essentially flat month. Prolonged heavy rain in Peru wiped out several kilometres of railway between the mines and port of Callao, but the limited capacity of alternative road transport and storage capacity is likely to force production disruption during the likely repair lasting well into April. Meanwhile, warrant cancellations of LME stocks shot up to 59% of the total tonnage, leaving available material at its lower level for four years, threatening a refined metal supply squeeze if this material leaves warehouses in short order. TCs fell again in the month, with indicative terms now standing at just $35/t CIF MCP. Smelters are clearly desperate for supply.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global lead short-term outlook March 2017 PDF - 470.71 KB 28 Pages, 11 Tables, 10 Figures
  • Data tables lead STO March 2017.xls XLS - 266.50 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
    • US
  • Supply
    • Raw materials market
      • Smelter and refinery news
      • Mine production news
        • Lead mine capability, adjustment and production - ROW, China and Global (kt Pb)

In this report there are 21 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Lead key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Lead price stay ahead of the pack despite relatively flat month
    • Lead price gets slightly ahead of weakened dollar
    • Calm surface waters disguise alarming undercurrent of material potentially leaving warehouses
    • Cash to 3-month contango steady but spreads in backwardation further forward
    • Steady growth in SHFE lead stocks on weak demand, in the face of primary supply tightening
    • In- and outflows from LME warehouses remain minimal as cancelled stocks reach 59% of total
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Demand
    • Huge jump in Chinese refined lead imports is meaningless
    • Lead exports slow to a trickle despite increased offshoring of battery production for export markets
    • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
  • Supply
    • Concentrate market TCs
    • Cumulative Chinese concentrate imports decrease 7% month on month
    • 2016-2018 increased global refined production comes primarily from China and the rest of Asia
    • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Lead stocks, prices and premia
    • Global lead supply and demand (kt)
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