Commodity market report
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24 Pages

Global lead short-term outlook May 2016


Global lead short-term outlook May 2016

Report summary

Lead showed little movement in May, ending at $1694/t, as external factors and fundamentals combined to produce no distinct direction as markets move into the seasonal low period. LME stocks were up 11kt but, with no new cancelled warrants, traders seem to have turned their attention elsewhere for the moment. Scrap prices have eased slightly but remain high everywhere as prospects of feed stock shortages loom for both primary and secondary smelters later this year. TCs are declining with indicative spot terms for China $10/t lower at $145/t.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global lead short-term outlook May 2016 PDF - 439.26 KB 24 Pages, 12 Tables, 11 Figures
  • Data tables lead STO May 2016.xls XLS - 263.00 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
    • US
    • Other
  • Supply
    • Raw materials market
    • Smelter and refinery news
    • Mine production news

In this report there are 23 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Lead key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Lead takes the middle path as market drivers fail to create a change in direction
    • Lead's unexceptional performance a feature of 2016 so far
    • Sustained period of contango ends as spreads tighten and backwardations pop up
    • Strengthening dollar brings LME price back to closer correlation
    • LME and SHFE prices diverge as Chinese investors seek better returns than from equities
    • Moderate stock increase with no new cancellations in May
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Demand
    • Chinese battery exports sharply up for a second month from low in February
    • Industrial batteries still dominate total number of export units
    • US vehicle production maintains recovered momentum
    • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
  • Supply
    • Concentrate market TCs
    • Chinese concentrate imports decrease for the third month in a row
    • 2015-2017 increased global refined production comes primarily from China and the rest of Asia
    • Lead mine capability, adjustment and production - ROW, China and Global (kt Pb)
    • Glencore Q1 2016 mine production reduced due to cuts (kt Zn or Pb in concentrate)
    • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
    • Global lead mine production (Lead in concentrate)
    • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Lead stocks, prices and premia
    • Global lead supply and demand (kt)
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