Commodity market report
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27 Pages

Global lead short-term outlook November 2015

Global lead short-term outlook November 2015

Report summary

Lead managed once again to prove quite resilient as pessimistic sentiment forced down base metal prices across the board. Gloom over the Chinese economy and increasing dollar strength gave momentum to the plummet with price hitting a six-year low of $1554/t. However, talk of production cuts from several major zinc producers generated some brief rallies to rescue lead price from further embarrassment. LME stocks also reached a six-year low as metal steadily left warehouses irrespective of the various price activities, headed for both consumption and for holding in stock off warrant. North American scrap battery prices fell even further than the LME price as dealers were forced to use lead scrap to produce cash flow as stocks of other metal scraps suffered from very low prices and poor demand.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global lead short-term outlook November 2015 PDF - 653.83 KB 27 Pages, 13 Tables, 12 Figures
  • Data tables lead STO November 2015.xls XLS - 266.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
    • China
    • Europe
    • Japan
    • India
  • Supply
    • Raw materials market
      • Smelter and refinery news
      • Mine production news
        • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)

In this report there are 25 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Lead key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Base metals follow strong November decline
    • Year to date still shows lead as most resilient
    • Dollar strength matched by LME price plummet
    • COTR total positions increase during choppy month
    • COTR Money Managers - gap closes between longs and shorts
    • China PMI data shows long-term decline in manufacturing performance
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
    • Constant outflow of LME stocks undisturbed by price fall and balanced supply-demand picture
    • August yuan devaluation brings exchange prices and forex back in line
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Demand
    • Increased Chinese refined lead exports signal 2016 market weakness
    • Chinese vehicle production in marked downturn in 2016 despite October boost from tax incentive
    • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
  • Supply
    • Concentrate market TCs
    • Average monthly Chinese concentrate imports 37% higher so far in H2 compared to H1
    • Chinese primary and secondary smelter utilisation rates diverge
    • Lead mine capability, adjustments and production - ROW, China and Global (kt Pb)
    • Potential mine production cuts by Nyrstar
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Global lead mine production (Lead in concentrate)
    • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Lead stocks, prices and premia
    • Global lead supply and demand (kt)
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