Commodity market report
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28 Pages

Global lead short-term outlook November 2016

Global lead short-term outlook November 2016

Report summary

Lead hit a 5-year peak of $2466/t as funds, speculators and Chinese investors fuelled a stunning base metals rally, which followed the bullish sentiment of LME Week at the start of the month. After price corrections from lead surging ahead of its own strong fundamentals, lead dropped back to end November at $2330/t, up 13.6% on the month. The simmering desperation among smelters over the looming primary supply tightness saw TCs drop to $30-50/t flat CIF MCP, as demand continues to hold up well with consumers taking their full contractual tonnages.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global lead short-term outlook November 2016 PDF - 541.79 KB 28 Pages, 12 Tables, 10 Figures
  • Data tables lead STO November 2016.xls XLS - 264.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Lead key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
  • Demand
    • China
    • North America
    • Middle East
    • Europe
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
  • Supply
    • Raw materials market
      • Concentrate market TCs
    • Smelter and refinery news
    • Mine production news

In this report there are 22 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Lead spikes at end of month to finish 14% up
    • Normal relationship between dollar strength and price weakness decouples in November
    • Money Managers Commitment of Traders shows sentiment turning away from shorts
    • SHFE/LME price ratio opens up sharply in November on Chinese supply problems
    • Diminished inflows/outflows in November
    • Cancelled warrants in Vlissingen are the only signs of life in moribund stock situation
    • Sharp reduction in SHFE stocks points to supply problems in China
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Demand
    • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
    • Global lead mine production (Lead in concentrate)
    • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Lead stocks, prices and premia
    • Global lead supply and demand (kt)
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