Commodity market report

Global lead short-term outlook November 2016

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Report summary

Lead hit a 5-year peak of $2466/t as funds, speculators and Chinese investors fuelled a stunning base metals rally, which followed the bullish sentiment of LME Week at the start of the month. After price corrections from lead surging ahead of its own strong fundamentals, lead dropped back to end November at $2330/t, up 13.6% on the month. The simmering desperation among smelters over the looming primary supply tightness saw TCs drop to $30-50/t flat CIF MCP, as demand continues to hold up well with consumers taking their full contractual tonnages.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables lead STO November 2016.xls

    XLS 264.00 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook November 2016

    PDF 541.79 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook November 2016

    ZIP 625.67 KB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 22 images and tables including:


  • Lead spikes at end of month to finish 14% up
  • Normal relationship between dollar strength and price weakness decouples in November
  • Money Managers Commitment of Traders shows sentiment turning away from shorts
  • SHFE/LME price ratio opens up sharply in November on Chinese supply problems
  • Diminished inflows/outflows in November
  • Cancelled warrants in Vlissingen are the only signs of life in moribund stock situation
  • Sharp reduction in SHFE stocks points to supply problems in China
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Image 2


  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
  • Global lead mine production (Lead in concentrate)
  • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Lead stocks, prices and premia
  • Global lead supply and demand (kt)
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 1

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