Commodity market report
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28 Pages

Global lead short-term outlook October 2015

Global lead short-term outlook October 2015

Report summary

Frantic chatter during LME Week and a price rally triggered by frenzied short covering were the immediate consequences of Glencore's shock announcement on the eve of LME Week that 120kt of mine production would be cut from now until the end of 2016. The news briefly offset some of the gloom sitting heavily on the base metals complex and lead once again showed its fundamental soundness by gaining 5% of value over the month to outperform the LME complex. Demand for refined metal in the peak of the battery demand season is finely balanced in North America but is outstripping the availability of secondary raw material in Europe, sending scrap prices much higher than the LME price increase to $1712/t warranted.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global lead short-term outlook October 2015 PDF - 459.82 KB 28 Pages, 12 Tables, 9 Figures
  • Data tables lead STO October 2015.xls XLS - 201.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Lead key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Demand
    • China
    • USA
    • Europe
    • Japan
    • India
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
  • Supply
    • Raw materials market
      • Smelter and refinery news
      • Mine production news
        • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
        • Global lead mine production (Lead in concentrate)
        • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
        • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
        • Lead stocks, prices and premia

In this report there are 21 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Lead resilience continues; Glencore cutbacks briefly propel prices higher before downwards drift
    • FOMC and ECB announcements shoot dollar strength to multi-week high
    • Continued steady fall in LME stocks as cancelled warrant show little change and price climbs
    • Japanese concentrate imports increase again…
    • … as refined metal imports also rise to compensate
    • Primary lead imports start to fall slightly on lower industrial demand and improved scrap supply
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Demand
    • Refined lead imports drop as scrap imports grow to fed Indian lead demand
    • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply
    • Concentrate market TCs
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Indexed monthly Chinese refined production
    • Lead mine capability, adjustments and production - ROW, China and Global (kt Pb)
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Supply: Table 6
    • Supply: Table 7
    • Supply: Table 8
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