Commodity market report
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27 Pages

Global lead short-term outlook October 2016

Global lead short-term outlook October 2016

Report summary

Bullish sentiment towards lead resisted downwards price pressure from a strengthening dollar to see the LME price regain all lost value after a small mid-month dip, to end October at $2064/t. Price spreads also stabilised at larger contangoes as refined metal and scrap supplies appear adequate running into the peak demand season. However, competition is becoming increasingly fierce for lead concentrates with TCs heading south into the range $60-80/t flat CIF MCP, providing a persuasive argument that primary raw materials are tightening rapidly.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global lead short-term outlook October 2016 PDF - 483.24 KB 27 Pages, 12 Tables, 9 Figures
  • Global lead STO data tables October 2016.xls XLS - 263.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Lead key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
  • Demand
    • China
    • Europe
  • Supply
    • Raw materials market
    • Smelter and refinery news
    • Mine production news

In this report there are 21 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Base metals trade in tighter range during October before regrouping next starting point
    • Lead price resists downwards drag of harder dollar, hinting at sound fundamentals
    • 'Cash-to-threes' spread opens up to highest monthly average for a year
    • SHFE/LME price ratio tracks €/$ rate as renminbi weakens
    • Money Managers briefly flirt with long positions as net total spikes on price rise
    • Total LME stocks barely changed as cancelled tonnage re-warranted
    • Total exchange stocks remain quite stable heading into peak demand season
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Demand
    • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
  • Supply
    • Concentrate market TCs
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
    • Global lead mine production (Lead in concentrate)
    • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Lead stocks, prices and premia
    • Global lead supply and demand (kt)
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