Commodity market report

Global lead short-term outlook October 2016



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Report summary

Bullish sentiment towards lead resisted downwards price pressure from a strengthening dollar to see the LME price regain all lost value after a small mid month dip to end October at $2064/t. Price spreads also stabilised at larger contangoes as refined metal and scrap supplies appear adequate running into the peak demand season. However competition is becoming increasingly fierce for lead concentrates with TCs heading south into the range $60 80/t flat CIF MCP providing a persuasive argument that primary raw materials are tightening rapidly.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global lead STO data tables October 2016.xls

    XLS 263.00 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook October 2016

    PDF 483.24 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook October 2016

    ZIP 567.10 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 21 images and tables including:


  • Base metals trade in tighter range during October before regrouping next starting point
  • Lead price resists downwards drag of harder dollar, hinting at sound fundamentals
  • 'Cash-to-threes' spread opens up to highest monthly average for a year
  • SHFE/LME price ratio tracks €/$ rate as renminbi weakens
  • Money Managers briefly flirt with long positions as net total spikes on price rise
  • Total LME stocks barely changed as cancelled tonnage re-warranted
  • Total exchange stocks remain quite stable heading into peak demand season
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2


  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
  • Concentrate market TCs
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
  • Global lead mine production (Lead in concentrate)
  • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Lead stocks, prices and premia
  • Global lead supply and demand (kt)

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