Commodity market report

Global lead short-term outlook October 2017

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Report summary

A very brief peak to a six year high preceded lead falling behind the other base metals in price performance despite no the strong fundamentals remaining essentially unchanged a fact reinforced by negative treatment charges appearing for spot deliveries of lead concentrate into China. LME stocks maintained a steady fall while SHFE stocks recovered from last month's clean out. The SHFE price also slid back to early September levels as the refined lead frenzy calmed.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables lead STO October 2017.xls

    XLS 294.50 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook October 2017

    PDF 1.32 MB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook October 2017

    ZIP 1.34 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 24 images and tables including:

Images

  • Lead has a weak month for price, lagging other LME base metals
  • Tighter cash – 3-month price spread in October
  • Lead matches year-to-date price increase of other base metals, except nickel which lags behind
  • Positive SHFE-LME arbitrage windows closes down in October
  • Chinese lead imports fall in September but reflect past months' demand, not recent domestic squeeze
  • Recovery in SHFE stocks as price falls and calm returns
  • Dollar strengthening weighs heavily on the lead price
  • Lead stocks fall steadily, but live warrants remain unchanged
  • LME stocks since 2016
  • Withdrawals made from LME stocks on 93% of days since huge warrant cancellation in March
  • Regional changes in consumption from previous forecast
  • Supply: Image 1

Tables

  • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Lead mine capability, adjustment and production - ROW, China and Global (kt Pb)
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Global lead supply and demand (kt)

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