Commodity Market Report

Global lead short-term outlook October 2017

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Report summary

A very brief peak to a six-year high preceded lead falling behind the other base metals in price performance, despite no the strong fundamentals remaining essentially unchanged - a fact reinforced by negative treatment charges appearing for spot deliveries of lead concentrate into China. LME stocks maintained a steady fall while SHFE stocks recovered from last month's clean-out. The SHFE price also slid back to early September levels as the refined lead frenzy calmed.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables lead STO October 2017.xls

    XLS 294.50 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook October 2017

    PDF 1.32 MB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook October 2017

    ZIP 1.34 MB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 24 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Lead mine capability, adjustment and production - ROW, China and Global (kt Pb)
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Global lead supply and demand (kt)

Images

  • Lead has a weak month for price, lagging other LME base metals
  • Tighter cash – 3-month price spread in October
  • Lead matches year-to-date price increase of other base metals, except nickel which lags behind
  • Positive SHFE-LME arbitrage windows closes down in October
  • Chinese lead imports fall in September but reflect past months' demand, not recent domestic squeeze
  • Recovery in SHFE stocks as price falls and calm returns
  • Dollar strengthening weighs heavily on the lead price
  • Lead stocks fall steadily, but live warrants remain unchanged
  • LME stocks since 2016
  • Withdrawals made from LME stocks on 93% of days since huge warrant cancellation in March
  • Regional changes in consumption from previous forecast
  • Supply: Image 1

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