Commodity Market Report
Global lead short-term outlook October 2018
Report summary
Lead appeared unable to free itself of negative sentiment and dropped 5% of value over the month after some sharp price fluctuations. This was despite LME stocks hitting a 10-year low and portents of potential acute supply tightness. A 20 kt reversion of stocks from cancelled to live warrants seemed to give markets sufficient excuse to knock down price still further, even as total stocks continued to fall. Mine production growth in Q3 disappointed with several producer falling short of expectations and keeping the concentrate market tight - but not enough to push annual contract TCs sharply higher.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Lead key forecasts
-
Supply-demand balances
- Refined lead premia and scrap prices
- Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
-
Demand
- Europe
- China
- India
- Japan
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Supply
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Raw materials market
- Concentrate market TCs
- Mine production news
-
Raw materials market
Tables and charts
This report includes 23 images and tables including:
- High price variance throughout the month, but lead ends October joint bottom of the pack
- Lead price mostly tracks the dollar rate but briefly breaks free on surplus worries
- Steady outflow from LME warehouses partially countered by inward deliveries
- Brief backwardation during price spike before contango re-established
- Total stocks hit decade low but re-warranting jumps up live stocks by 20 kt
- LME lead stocks in historical context
- SHFE lead stocks in historical context
- Executive summary: Table 1
- Supply-demand balances: Table 1
- Korean Customs data shows Japan scrap imports fall sharply
- Iranian lead exports to India sharply down after currency collapse in April
- Supply-demand balances: Table 2
- Japanese refined lead exports leap after improved scrap supply and weaker domestic demand
- Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
- Fall in China's year-to-date lead concentrate moderates significantly as a result of strong increase in September
- Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
- Supply: Table 3
- Supply: Table 4
- Supply: Table 5
- Supply: Table 6
- Supply: Table 7
- Supply: Table 8
- Supply: Table 1
What's included
This report contains:
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