Commodity market report
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28 Pages

Global lead short-term outlook September 2016

Global lead short-term outlook September 2016

Report summary

Fears of an acute short-term supply pinch supercharged lead, already in a price rally, to smash through the $2000/t barrier to end September at a 16-month high of $2036/t. Factors such as a major smelter outage due to the Australian storms and a new wave of environmental clampdowns on Chinese secondary smelters conspired to create a level both panic and excitement in the markets. This could exacerbate the situation by flushing out buffer stocks of scrap as dealers capitalise on the price, leading to increased supply tightness as the industry shifts into top gear for the peak lead demand season. The primary supply market also became more aggressive with downwards pressure on TCs dropping levels into the range $105-120/t.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global lead short-term outlook September 2016 PDF - 468.46 KB 28 Pages, 12 Tables, 10 Figures
  • Data tables lead STO September 2016.xls XLS - 263.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Lead Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Lead key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
  • Demand
    • China
    • US
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
  • Supply
    • Raw materials market
    • Smelter and refinery news
      • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)

In this report there are 22 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Lead initially follows the base metals pack but then rallies strongly after storms knock out furnace
    • Lead price resists influence of dollar strength, breaks free at end of month
    • Long period of contango comes to end as supply fears tighten price spread
    • LME stocks grow 2% with modest deposits into European warehouses
    • Modest and infrequent stock movements take LME stocks up 3.7kt
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Demand
    • Chinese 2016 vehicle production ahead of previous years
    • Vehicle production maintains some strength as US economy recovers
    • Refined lead imports up sharply on Korean imports
    • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply
    • Concentrate market TCs
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Global lead mine production (Lead in concentrate)
    • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
    • Lead stocks, prices and premia
    • Supply: Table 8
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