Commodity market report

Global lead short-term outlook September 2017

Loading current market price

Get this report

Loading current market price

Get this report as part of a subscription

Enquire about Subscriptions

Already have subscription? Sign In

Further information

Pay by Invoice or Credit Card FAQs

Contact us

For further information about this report submit the form below.

Report summary

Lead broke free from the base metals complex in mid September to score a six year high price of $2519/t following an acute shortage of refined metal in China. The prevailing and ever tightening concentrate shortage combined with a new wave of even tougher environmental inspections to severely curtail output. Continued robust consumption soon depleted SHFE stocks so buyers were forced to turn their attention to acquiring importing refined metal. As SHFE prices shot higher a positive arbitrage to the LME developed to $90 100/t opening the flood gates to refined lead imports. Chinese concentrate spot TCs dropped even further with the possibility of negative TCs appearing for deliveries in Q1 2018. Meanwhile the full impact of up to one million vehicles destroyed by hurricanes Harvey and Irma is still being assessed for the US lead scrap and battery industries.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data tables lead STO September 2017.xls

    XLS 290.50 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook September 2017

    PDF 821.75 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook September 2017

    ZIP 933.71 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 26 images and tables including:

Images

  • Lead breaks free from the pack to head base metal performance
  • September stock outflows initially quiet but with two large deposits into European warehouses
  • Chinese vehicle production continues year-on-year growth
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
  • Cash to 3-month price spread disappears with refined lead tightness
  • Spreads coalesce during September for cash, 3-month and long-term forward prices
  • Rocketing SHFE lead produces positive arbitrage to LME prices
  • Chinese refined lead imports shoot higher in 2017; can be expected to surge again from September
  • Dollar slide reversed near end of month on indications of interest rate rise by end of 2017
  • COTR Money Managers still clearly long on their lead positions
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 11
  • LME stocks show some recovery with European lead deposits
  • US auto production noticeably weaker in 2017
  • Supply: Image 1

Tables

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Lead mine capability, adjustment and production - ROW, China and Global (kt Pb)
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Global lead supply and demand (kt)

You may be interested in

    
            
            
            
            
    

Questions about this report?

  • Europe:
    +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas:
    +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific:
    +61 2 8224 8898