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Global lead short-term outlook September 2017

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29 September 2017

Global lead short-term outlook September 2017

Report summary

Lead broke free from the base metals complex in mid September to score a six-year high price of $2519/t following an acute shortage of refined metal in China. The prevailing and ever-tightening concentrate shortage combined with a new wave of even tougher environmental inspections to severely curtail output. Continued robust consumption soon depleted SHFE stocks, so buyers were forced to turn their attention to acquiring importing refined metal. As SHFE prices shot higher a positive arbitrage to the LME developed to $90-100/t, opening the flood gates to refined lead imports. Chinese concentrate spot TCs dropped even further with the possibility of negative TCs appearing for deliveries in Q1 2018. Meanwhile, the full impact of up to one million vehicles destroyed by hurricanes Harvey and Irma is still being assessed for the US lead scrap and battery industries.

Table of contents

    • Lead key forecasts
    • Chinese lead demand reawakens Money Managers' interest
    • Refined lead premia and scrap prices
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
    • China
    • North America
    • Europe
    • Mexico
      • Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
    • Raw materials market
      • Concentrate market TCs
    • Mine production news
    • Smelter production news
      • Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
      • Global lead mine production (Lead in Concentrate)
      • Lead stocks, prices and premia

Tables and charts

This report includes 26 images and tables including:

  • Lead breaks free from the pack to head base metal performance
  • September stock outflows initially quiet but with two large deposits into European warehouses
  • Chinese vehicle production continues year-on-year growth
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
  • Cash to 3-month price spread disappears with refined lead tightness
  • Spreads coalesce during September for cash, 3-month and long-term forward prices
  • Rocketing SHFE lead produces positive arbitrage to LME prices
  • Chinese refined lead imports shoot higher in 2017; can be expected to surge again from September
  • Dollar slide reversed near end of month on indications of interest rate rise by end of 2017
  • COTR Money Managers still clearly long on their lead positions
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 11
  • LME stocks show some recovery with European lead deposits
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • US auto production noticeably weaker in 2017
  • Lead mine capability, adjustment and production - ROW, China and Global (kt Pb)
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Global lead supply and demand (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Data tables lead STO September 2017.xls

    XLS 290.50 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook September 2017

    PDF 821.75 KB

  • Document

    Global lead short-term outlook September 2017

    ZIP 933.71 KB

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