Commodity Market Report
Global lead short-term outlook September 2018
Report summary
Another month of decline lead price saw it briefly hit a two-year low of $1970/t before breaking back above the $2000/t barrier. LME live warrants reached their lowest for almost a decade and halted the fall in price but failed to impart any upwards momentum. The slide then continued with a huge re-warranting of cancelled stock, despite total stocks still diminishing. Spot TCs have not increased but long-term contracts will be structured to reflect likely market conditions for the whole of next year.
Table of contents
-
Executive summary
- Lead key forecasts
-
Supply-demand balances
- Refined lead premia and scrap prices
- Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
-
Demand
- China
- US
-
Europe
- Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
-
Supply
-
Raw materials market
- Concentrate market TCs
- Mine production news
-
Raw materials market
Tables and charts
This report includes 23 images and tables including:
- Supply-demand balances: Image 1
- Average LME cash to three-month contango down to $14.70/t in September from $16.80/t in August
- Lead price and dollar rate decouple mid September following massive stock re-warranting
- Level of refined lead trade between the US and China unlikely to be affected by tariffs
- Steady outflow of lead from stocks, with little heading into LME warehouses
- Available LME warrants almost at a ten-year low
- Total stocks continue to diminish but live warrants up sharply
- SHFE refined lead stocks resume downwards direction ahead of shutdown period during tight supply
- Executive summary: Table 1
- Supply-demand balances: Table 1
- Supply-demand balances: Table 2
- Better year-on-year vehicle output over summer after mostly disappointing 2018
- Shipments from North Korea and Russia have been the greatest drag on China's concentrate imports this year
- Processing imported lead concentrate has been relatively rewarding to Chinese smelter during the last month
- Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
- Supply: Table 3
- Supply: Table 4
- Supply: Table 5
- Supply: Table 6
- Supply: Table 7
- Supply: Table 8
- Demand: Table 1
- Supply: Table 1
What's included
This report contains:
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