Commodity market report
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19 Pages

Global nickel long-term outlook Q1 2016

Global nickel long-term outlook Q1 2016

Report summary

We anticipate an average nickel price of US$8,760/t (US$4.00/lb) in 2016. Fundamentals remain weak and sentiment remains poor. More than 25% of annual nickel demand is held in LME/SHFE warehouses, with at least the same amount stored in off-exchange locations. Although some producers have closed or cut back, we are still maintaining a negative market adjustment of 65kt for 2016 and this helps to push the market into deficit. But high stock levels will cap any rally in prices, resulting in annual average prices of US$9,250/t (US$4.20/lb) in 2017 and US$10,350/t (US$4.70/lb) in 2018. New project supply that is needed from 2020 will probably come from Chinese/Indonesian ventures, with western producers contributing to the short fall from 2025. This will require a long term price incentive of US$19,400/t (US$8.80/lb).

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • Global nickel long-term outlook Q1 2016 PDF - 384.66 KB 19 Pages, 3 Tables, 10 Figures
  • Nickel Tables LTO Q1 2016.pdf PDF - 1.35 MB
  • LTO Slidepack Q1 2016.pdf PDF - 856.76 KB
  • Demand main changes nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls XLS - 161.50 KB
  • Demand analysis nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls XLS - 1.71 MB
  • Supply main changes nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls XLS - 165.50 KB
  • Production rankings nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls XLS - 62.00 KB
  • Equity Production nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls XLS - 3.18 MB
  • Mine analysis nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls XLS - 625.50 KB
  • Smelter analysis nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls XLS - 360.00 KB
  • Refinery analysis nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls XLS - 796.00 KB
  • Market balance and prices nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls XLS - 354.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Nickel Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Nickel in stainless steel
      • Africa
      • Asia
      • Europe
      • Latin America
      • North America
    • Nickel in non-stainless
      • Nickel consumption in non-stainless first uses
  • Supply
    • Africa
    • Asia
    • Europe
    • Latin America
    • North America
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Global nickel supply and demand - long-term supply shortfall

In this report there are 13 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Global regional nickel consumption
    • Regional nickel consumption (kt)
    • Growth in Chinese stainless melt production by grade and changes in primary nickel uptake
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Global nickel consumption by first use
    • Global stainless steel product consumption by end use
  • Supply
    • Near-term changes in mine production capability, excluding highly probable projects (kt)
    • Near-term changes in refined production capability, excluding highly probable projects (kt)
    • Mined nickel production capability
    • Refined nickel production capability
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Calculated global nickel stocks (end-2015 = 1.3Mt, implied)
    • Near-term year on year deficits
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
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