Commodity Market Report

Global nickel long-term outlook Q1 2016

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22 March 2016

Global nickel long-term outlook Q1 2016

Report summary

We anticipate an average nickel price of US$8,760/t (US$4.00/lb) in 2016. Fundamentals remain weak and sentiment remains poor. More than 25% of annual nickel demand is held in LME/SHFE warehouses, with at least the same amount stored in off-exchange locations. Although some producers have closed or cut back, we are still maintaining a negative market adjustment of 65kt for 2016 and this helps to push the market into deficit. But high stock levels will cap any rally in prices, resulting in annual average prices of US$9,250/t (US$4.20/lb) in 2017 and US$10,350/t (US$4.70/lb) in 2018. New project supply that is needed from 2020 will probably come from Chinese/Indonesian ventures, with western producers contributing to the short fall from 2025. This will require a long term price incentive of US$19,400/t (US$8.80/lb).

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Nickel in stainless steel
      • Africa
      • Asia
      • Europe
      • Latin America
      • North America
    • Nickel in non-stainless
      • Nickel consumption in non-stainless first uses
    • Africa
    • Asia
    • Europe
    • Latin America
    • North America
    • Global nickel supply and demand - long-term supply shortfall

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

  • Global regional nickel consumption
  • Regional nickel consumption (kt)
  • Near-term changes in mine production capability, excluding highly probable projects (kt)
  • Near-term changes in refined production capability, excluding highly probable projects (kt)
  • Calculated global nickel stocks (end-2015 = 1.3Mt, implied)
  • Near-term year on year deficits
  • Mined nickel production capability
  • Refined nickel production capability
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Growth in Chinese stainless melt production by grade and changes in primary nickel uptake
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Global nickel consumption by first use
  • Global stainless steel product consumption by end use

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Nickel Tables LTO Q1 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.35 MB

  • Document

    LTO Slidepack Q1 2016.pdf

    PDF 856.76 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 161.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 1.71 MB

  • Document

    Supply main changes nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 165.50 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 62.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 3.18 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 625.50 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 360.00 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 796.00 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices nickel LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 354.50 KB

  • Document

    Global nickel long-term outlook Q1 2016

    PDF 384.66 KB

  • Document

    Global nickel long-term outlook Q1 2016

    ZIP 4.15 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 59.08 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 163.99 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 132.09 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 102.29 KB