Commodity Market Report

Global nickel long-term outlook Q1 2019

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What key questions does this nickel market outlook answer?

  • How long do we expect the nickel market to stay in deficit? How will this affect prices
  • As electric vehicles grow in popularity, will there be enough nickel to meet nickel demand for the battery chemicals EVs need?
  • What’s driving nickel demand in the short term?

The outlook for nickel remains one of long-term structural deficit and higher prices. World stainless melt production is expected to increase by around 16% by 2025, before slowing. However, there are risks to nickel uptake including falling austenitic ratios and rising scrap use in China. Also, penetration of the market by Indonesian stainless will force other producers to cut output. Longer term nickel demand is driven by the electric vehicle battery segment, not least because high-nickel battery chemistries will become increasingly dominant. But where is all the nickel going to come from? Do recently announced hydrometallurgical projects in Indonesia really provide the answer?

Table of contents

    • Africa
    • Southeast Asia
    • China
    • Europe
    • The Americas
  • Nickel in non-stainless
  • Principal Uses of Nickel
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Oceania
  • Latin America

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

  • EV battery share of total nickel demand in 2018
  • EV battery share of total nickel demand in 2040
  • Global nickel consumption by first use
  • Global stainless steel product consumption by end use
  • Mined nickel production capability
  • Refined nickel production capability
  • Increasing feed requirements at Ambatovy, as grades fall
  • Near-term changes in refined production capability, excluding highly probable projects (kt)
  • Substantial deficit accumulating over the next ten years
  • Global nickel supply and demand - long-term structural shortage
  • Malaysian imports of stainless from South Africa replaced by Indonesia
  • Taiwan cuts stainless melt output as imports from Indonesia go up
  • Penetration of European stainless market by ex-region imports

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global_nickel_long-term_outlook_Q1_2019.pdf

    PDF 2.50 MB