Nickel prices threatened to break below US$8,000/t in November/December and are expected to remain at this level for the next 6-8 months. This should force widely anticipated producer discipline. As it is difficult to predict which producers will react first, we have introduced a negative market adjustment of 60kt for 2016 and 2017 in acknowledgement that cuts must come, albeit from unspecified operations. This results in much larger market deficits in those years and an opportunity for stocks to return to more manageable levels by 2019. By 2025 the market will need 265kt of new nickel from projects outside China, which we estimate will need a long-term incentive price of US$21,000/t (US$9.50/lb).
This report includes 12 file(s)
Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2015 PDF - 401.77 KB 21 Pages, 3 Tables, 12 Figures
As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.
This Nickel Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.
Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.
From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.
We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.
Wood Mackenzie's clients include every major player in the global energy, metals and mining industries. We are recognised as a leading authority by international and national energy, metals and mining companies, leading financial institutions, governments and government agencies. We work with a range of diverse teams within our clients, from strategy and policy makers, business developers and market analysts, through to corporate finance, risk teams and investors.
Having Wood Mac analysis is table-stakes. Others are nice to have.
Analyst Metal Mining Producer
Wood Mac has the highest quality data and is demanded by our staff.
Portfolio Manager Integrated Oil Company
Others can provide data but we value the quality of the Wood Mac analysis above other sources.
As the trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, we empower clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice. Find out more...
Commodity market report | Dec 2015
Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2015
Have questions? Just let us know how to contact you and we will respond to you as soon as possible.