Commodity Market Report

Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2015

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11 December 2015

Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2015

Report summary

Nickel prices threatened to break below US$8,000/t in November/December and are expected to remain at this level for the next 6-8 months. This should force widely anticipated producer discipline. As it is difficult to predict which producers will react first, we have introduced a negative market adjustment of 60kt for 2016 and 2017 in acknowledgement that cuts must come, albeit from unspecified operations. This results in much larger market deficits in those years and an opportunity for stocks to return to more manageable levels by 2019. By 2025 the market will need 265kt of new nickel from projects outside China, which we estimate will need a long-term incentive price of US$21,000/t (US$9.50/lb).

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Nickel in stainless steel
      • Africa
      • Asia
      • Europe
      • North America
    • Nickel in non-stainless
      • Nickel consumption in non-stainless first uses
    • Principal Uses of Nickel
    • Africa
    • Asia
    • Europe
    • Latin America
    • North America
    • Oceania
    • Global nickel supply and demand - long-term supply shortfall
    • Incentive Price Analysis (all equity, pre tax, 15% IRR)

Tables and charts

This report includes 15 images and tables including:

  • Global regional nickel consumption
  • Regional nickel consumption (kt)
  • Near-term changes in mine production capability, excluding highly probable projects (kt)
  • Near-term changes in refined production capability, excluding highly probable projects (kt)
  • Near-term year on year deficits
  • Global nickel consumption by first use
  • Global stainless steel product consumption by end use
  • Mined nickel production capability
  • Refined nickel production capability
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • China's stainless steel production outlook by company (ranked on 2015)
  • Rationalisation of China's stainless industry: >20 plant exits since January 2014
  • Chinese stainless: Share taken by the majors approximately 90% in 2015
  • Demand: Image 5

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Nickel Tables LTO Q4 2015.pdf

    PDF 3.65 MB

  • Document

    LTO Slidepack Q4 2015.pdf

    PDF 793.87 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 136.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 1.78 MB

  • Document

    Supply main changes nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 169.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 63.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 3.22 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 632.50 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 362.00 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 803.50 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls

    XLS 408.50 KB

  • Document

    Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2015

    PDF 401.77 KB

  • Document

    Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2015

    ZIP 4.88 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 57.75 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 176.88 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 130.94 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 109.75 KB

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