Commodity market report
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21 Pages

Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2015


Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2015

Report summary

Nickel prices threatened to break below US$8,000/t in November/December and are expected to remain at this level for the next 6-8 months. This should force widely anticipated producer discipline. As it is difficult to predict which producers will react first, we have introduced a negative market adjustment of 60kt for 2016 and 2017 in acknowledgement that cuts must come, albeit from unspecified operations. This results in much larger market deficits in those years and an opportunity for stocks to return to more manageable levels by 2019. By 2025 the market will need 265kt of new nickel from projects outside China, which we estimate will need a long-term incentive price of US$21,000/t (US$9.50/lb).

What's included?

This report includes 12 file(s)

  • Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2015 PDF - 401.77 KB 21 Pages, 3 Tables, 12 Figures
  • Nickel Tables LTO Q4 2015.pdf PDF - 3.65 MB
  • LTO Slidepack Q4 2015.pdf PDF - 793.87 KB
  • Demand main changes nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 136.50 KB
  • Demand analysis nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 1.78 MB
  • Supply main changes nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 169.00 KB
  • Production rankings nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 63.00 KB
  • Equity Production nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 3.22 MB
  • Mine analysis nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 632.50 KB
  • Smelter analysis nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 362.00 KB
  • Refinery analysis nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 803.50 KB
  • Market balance and prices nickel LTO Q4 2015.xls XLS - 408.50 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Nickel Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Nickel in stainless steel
      • Africa
      • Asia
      • Europe
      • North America
    • Nickel in non-stainless
      • Nickel consumption in non-stainless first uses
    • Principal Uses of Nickel
  • Supply
    • Africa
    • Asia
    • Europe
    • Latin America
    • North America
    • Oceania
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Global nickel supply and demand - long-term supply shortfall
    • Incentive Price Analysis (all equity, pre tax, 15% IRR)

In this report there are 15 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Global regional nickel consumption
    • Regional nickel consumption (kt)
    • China's stainless steel production outlook by company (ranked on 2015)
    • Rationalisation of China's stainless industry: >20 plant exits since January 2014
    • Chinese stainless: Share taken by the majors approximately 90% in 2015
    • Demand: Image 5
    • Global nickel consumption by first use
    • Global stainless steel product consumption by end use
  • Supply
    • Near-term changes in mine production capability, excluding highly probable projects (kt)
    • Near-term changes in refined production capability, excluding highly probable projects (kt)
    • Mined nickel production capability
    • Refined nickel production capability
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Near-term year on year deficits
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
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