Nickel prices threatened to break below US$8,000/t in November/December and are expected to remain at this level for the next 6-8 months. This should force widely anticipated producer discipline. As it is difficult to predict which producers will react first, we have introduced a negative market adjustment of 60kt for 2016 and 2017 in acknowledgement that cuts must come, albeit from unspecified operations. This results in much larger market deficits in those years and an opportunity for stocks to return to more manageable levels by 2019. By 2025 the market will need 265kt of new nickel from projects outside China, which we estimate will need a long-term incentive price of US$21,000/t (US$9.50/lb).