Commodity market report

Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2016

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Report summary

The ongoing ramp up of new stainless melting capacity in China warranted a substantial increase in our demand forecasts. However this change was more than offset by a larger increase in forecast supply chiefly due to new NPI production in Indonesia. Despite these changes the nickel market will end 2016 in deficit and it is still expected to remain undersupplied through to 2020. Much of the shortfall can be met by stocks but by 2020 there will be a need for new project development. Critically more sulphide mines will be needed in order to keep existing smelters in operation. In order to maintain a reasonable market balance around 665kt of new finished nickel supply will be needed by 2035. We estimate that the promise of a long term nickel price of US$22 000/t (US$10.00/lb real) should be enough to incentivise those new projects.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global nickel long term outlook Q4 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.70 MB

  • Document

    Nickel Tables LTO Q4 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.29 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 166.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 1.62 MB

  • Document

    Supply main changes nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 173.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 62.50 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 3.18 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 654.50 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 366.50 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 830.50 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 359.00 KB

  • Document

    Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2016

    ZIP 4.62 MB

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