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Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2016

Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2016

Report summary

The ongoing ramp up of new stainless melting capacity in China warranted a substantial increase in our demand forecasts. However, this change was more than offset by a larger increase in forecast supply, chiefly due to new NPI production in Indonesia. Despite these changes, the nickel market will end 2016 in deficit and it is still expected to remain undersupplied through to 2020. Much of the shortfall can be met by stocks but by 2020 there will be a need for new project development. Critically, more sulphide mines will be needed in order to keep existing smelters in operation. In order to maintain a reasonable market balance, around 665kt of new finished nickel supply will be needed by 2035. We estimate that the promise of a long-term nickel price of US$22,000/t (US$10.00/lb, real) should be enough to incentivise those new projects.

What's included?

This report includes 11 file(s)

  • Global nickel long term outlook Q4 2016.pdf PDF - 1.70 MB
  • Nickel Tables LTO Q4 2016.pdf PDF - 1.29 MB
  • Demand main changes nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 166.50 KB
  • Demand analysis nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 1.62 MB
  • Supply main changes nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 173.00 KB
  • Production rankings nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 62.50 KB
  • Equity Production nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 3.18 MB
  • Mine analysis nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 654.50 KB
  • Smelter analysis nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 366.50 KB
  • Refinery analysis nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 830.50 KB
  • Market balance and prices nickel LTO Q4 2016.xls XLS - 359.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Nickel Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • What's changed?
    • Demand update
    • Supply update
    • Medium to long term market outlook
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