Commodity Market Report

Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2018

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What’s the key takeaway from this report?

The nickel market is in deficit and is expected to continue to be over the mid-term. This might change if recent proposals for plants in Indonesia trigger a new wave of investment.

What’s changed since our last report? 

Events in Indonesia and China are largely responsible for the changes in our forecasts since our last report. On the supply side, the net addition to finished nickel production of 20-80 ktpa between 2021 and 2040 is mostly due to the inclusion of two new Indonesian HPAL plants and associated refineries. We have revised our demand forecasts for nickel in both China and India.

In addition, demand for nickel in batteries for EVs will become increasingly important in the future, and our demand estimates have been revised to take into account the latest long-term outlook for battery raw materials from our Battery Raw Materials Service.

Sources of long term incremental nickel demand

14 December 2018

Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2018

Report summary

The nickel market is in deficit and is expected to remain so over the mid-term. The shortfall widens over the long-term as demand from EV batteries accelerates. Tsingshan's Indonesian stainless hub will add mounting pressure on competitors elsewhere in Asia, perhaps beyond. The company is also looking to expand into battery raw materials supply through investment in HPAL which, if successful, offers a resolution to the looming supply challenge.

Table of contents

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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2018.pdf

    PDF 2.46 MB

  • Document

    Nickel Tables LTO Q4 2018.pdf

    PDF 1.45 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes nickel LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 143.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis nickel LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 1.88 MB

  • Document

    Supply main changes nickel LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 206.50 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings nickel LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 63.50 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production nickel LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 3.85 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis nickel LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 828.00 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis nickel LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 385.50 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis nickel LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 1.16 MB

  • Document

    Refinery product type nickel LTO Q4 2018.xlsx

    XLSX 252.79 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices nickel LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 412.50 KB

  • Document

    Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2018

    ZIP 3.70 MB

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