Commodity market report

Global nickel short-term outlook August 2016

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Report summary

On 10 August nickel prices reached a new high for the year of US$10,897/t (US$4.94/lb), although subsequent profit-taking stimulated a retreat to below US$10,000/t (US$4.53/lb) by the end of the month. Developments in the Philippines have not advanced much further after last month's instigation of an environmental audit of the country’s mines. But if, as expected, there are more closures, prices should respond quite quickly. Fallout from the audit combined with the forthcoming monsoon season is likely to deplete Chinese ore stocks further in early 2017, unless NPI output is cut, either of which could trigger a renewed surge in nickel prices next year. How long that lasts will depend on developments in Indonesia, where NPI project advancement is accelerating.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data Tables Ni STO.xls

    XLS 428.50 KB

  • Document

    Global nickel short-term outlook August 2016

    PDF 790.53 KB

  • Document

    Global nickel short-term outlook August 2016

    ZIP 854.49 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Quarterly global nickel consumption in stainless steel (kt)
    • Chinese nickel ore imports from the Philippines is lower in 2016

Tables and charts

This report includes 21 images and tables including:

Images

  • LME and SHFE nickel stocks, and nickel prices
  • Monthly NPI production and decline in stocks of nickel ore feed
  • LME cash and 3-month spread
  • Indonesian FeNi trade into China comprises both FeNi and pig iron
  • China stainless prices improving
  • EU 27 imports of stainless flat products from Taiwan are resurgent in 2016
  • Chinese exports of stainless HRC to Taiwan increasing since mid-2015
  • Supply: Image 2

Tables

  • Key forecasts
  • Global nickel quarterly supply-demand balance
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Quarterly refined nickel consumption by first use (kt)
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Quarterly global stainless steel production (kt raw steel basis)
  • Global refined nickel consumption (kt)
  • Global stainless steel production (kt raw steel basis)
  • Global nickel mine production/capability (kt)
  • Global nickel smelter production/capability (kt)
  • Global nickel metal production/capability (kt)
  • Nickel stocks and premiums
  • Global refined nickel supply-demand balance (kt)

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