Commodity market report

Global nickel short-term outlook March 2017

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Report summary

On 2 March, new legislation from the Indonesian government clarified that 100% of existing and planned smelter input capacity could be exported as ore. This is higher than previously considered. As a result, nickel prices retreated, briefly falling below US$10,000/t (US$4.53/lb). As shipments of Indonesian ore will gather momentum from the second half of 2017, our outlook is one of falling nickel prices, targeting US$9,000/t in early 2018. The potential scale of future ore exports also poses considerable risk to our mid-term outlook of growing deficits.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global nickel STO data tables March 2017.xls

    XLS 415.50 KB

  • Document

    Global nickel short-term outlook March 2017

    PDF 520.08 KB

  • Document

    Global nickel short-term outlook March 2017

    ZIP 655.53 KB

Table of contents

    • Key forecasts
    • LME and SHFE nickel stocks, and nickel prices
    • Global nickel quarterly supply-demand balance
    • Quarterly global nickel consumption in stainless steel (kt)
    • Monthly nickel in ore and concentrate feed for Chinese NPI production (January-February, 2015-2016)
    • Global refined nickel supply-demand balance (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 20 images and tables including:

Images

  • LME nickel price and open interest
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • LME cash and 3-month spread
  • South African imports of cold-rolled stainless steel (7219 and 7220)
  • Airbus and Boeing aircraft deliveries
  • Estimated US shipments of nickel alloys by company
  • Supply: Image 1

Tables

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Quarterly refined nickel consumption by first use (kt)
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Quarterly global stainless steel production (kt raw steel basis)
  • Global refined nickel consumption (kt)
  • Global stainless steel production (kt raw steel basis)
  • Global nickel mine production/capability (kt)
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5

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