On 2 March, new legislation from the Indonesian government clarified that 100% of existing and planned smelter input capacity could be exported as ore. This is higher than previously considered. As a result, nickel prices retreated, briefly falling below US$10,000/t (US$4.53/lb). As shipments of Indonesian ore will gather momentum from the second half of 2017, our outlook is one of falling nickel prices, targeting US$9,000/t in early 2018. The potential scale of future ore exports also poses considerable risk to our mid-term outlook of growing deficits.