On 2 March new legislation from the Indonesian government clarified that 100% of existing and planned smelter input capacity could be exported as ore. This is higher than previously considered. As a result nickel prices retreated briefly falling below US$10 000/t (US$4.53/lb). As shipments of Indonesian ore will gather momentum from the second half of 2017 our outlook is one of falling nickel prices targeting US$9 000/t in early 2018. The potential scale of future ore exports also poses considerable risk to our mid term outlook of growing deficits.