Commodity market report

Global nickel short-term outlook November 2016

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Report summary

Cash nickel prices reached US$11,632/t (US$5.28/lb) on 15 November, their highest level for 16 months. The expectation of even higher prices in the next six months is based on two key factors: a Q1/17 tightening in the supply of ore feed for Chinese nickel pig iron (NPI) that will mean lower NPI production in 2017; and the continued expansion of China's stainless steel industry that will be forced to seek alternative nickel units as domestic NPI declines.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global nickel STO data tables November 2016.xls

    XLS 408.50 KB

  • Document

    Global nickel short-term outlook November 2016

    PDF 453.27 KB

  • Document

    Global nickel short-term outlook November 2016

    ZIP 585.83 KB

Table of contents

    • Key forecasts
    • LME and SHFE nickel stocks, and nickel prices
    • Suspension threat to Filipino nickel mines
    • Global nickel quarterly supply-demand balance
    • Quarterly global nickel consumption in stainless steel (kt)
    • Global nickel mine production/capability (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 19 images and tables including:

Images

  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • LME cash and 3-month spread
  • Chinese stainless steel production by grade - primary nickel uptake surge in 2016
  • Production ramp up at new Chinese stainless melting capacity (excludes Baotou)
  • China's second tier producers that have exited stainless - 27 plants have gone with loss of 2Mt output (at peak)

Tables

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Quarterly refined nickel consumption by first use (kt)
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Quarterly global stainless steel production (kt raw steel basis)
  • Global refined nickel consumption (kt)
  • Global stainless steel production (kt raw steel basis)
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5

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