Global steel long-term outlook Q1 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 29 March 2018

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Report summary

Our long-term steel demand view remains largely unchanged – but changes to our view of supply and trade mean that we are more bullish on prices. In 2018, we forecast hot-rolled coil at US$904/tonne in the US and US$624/tonne in China. We believe that from 2020 onwards, strong margins will incentivise a return of production and new capacity additions, and together with cost pressures will see prices ease over the medium term. For the longer term steel developments, there are two main themes that have come to the forefront as part of this update – infrastructure investment and global trade disputes. Our flat product pricing outlook has now been further enhanced by new models on flat-product supply-demand balances. You can find these for China, Europe, USA and Brazil in the downloads section of the report.

China
- Key China forecast data
- Demand
- China property: brace for stagnation
- Why are we not more optimistic about steel demand growth in lower-tier cities?
- And why are we not more pessimistic about growth in higher-tier cities?
- Infrastructure: at the mercy of local government finance
- Total construction: a few more years of gentle demand growth
- Manufacturing: 2017 stimuli will fade
- The equipment replacement cycle has run its course
- Mining and construction growth will not support demand for yellow goods
- Tax cuts for car purchases ended in 2018
- but the sector is set to expand
- Exports
- Production
- 2017: higher costs did not discriminate across technologies, they will in 2018
- BOF will retake some advantage
- Iron ore price under pressure from ever growing oversupply
- Supply uncertainties have prolonged the ride for coal prices. A decline should be imminent.
- Hot-metal production costs under heighten regulatory risk
- Scrap prices will be supported by strong steel demand

Tables and charts

This report includes 29 images and tables including:

Steel demand in construction to rise until 2020
After 2020 demand growth in social facilities won't offset the property sector decline

Machinery high demand was due to replacement
Most incentives will disappear in 2018
BOF route will remain dominant in producing more than 85% of Chinese crude steel output
Hebei steel capacity will increase after 2020
2017 high demand growth will not be repeated
Infrastructure will decline in the long term
We forecast steel exports to recover in the medium term
The capacity cuts in 2016 and 2017 should continue to maintain current utilisation rate level in future
Malaysia will grow fastest among regional peers
Southeast Asia steel production will grow steadily
Recovery in investment will support steel demand
The Indian government deficit has been steadily improving but it still remains high
EAF share of production will fall to around 20% by 2035
BOF steelmaking will continue to rise steadily and will drive hot metal consumption
Saudi production should return to growth in 2018
Dependence on DRI continues
Demand will take long to recover, but production has already recovered to pre-decline (2013) levels...
...steel production growth has been supported by growth in net-exports
Construction will drive long-term steel demand
The increase in BF-BOF steelmaking is only a short-term phenomenon
Energy infrastructure construction and vehicle output growth will support Russian domestic steel demand.
Crude steel production in Russia will trend upward as net exports increase.
Chart 1: BOF cost advantage
Chart 1: a measure of overcapacity