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Global steel long-term outlook Q4 2015

Global steel long-term outlook Q4 2015

Report summary

All the difficulties the steel industry has experienced in 2015 are here to stay. In the medium term, we do not expect construction in China to return to growth, or demand growth in Brazil and Russia to rebound. As a result, exports from these countries will remain high, leaving global utilisation rates to linger below 70%. In the next couple of years, stock overhang, poor demand growth, and weak raw material prices will maintain steel prices at rock bottom. Only after 2017 do we expect prices to recover, but there will be nothing spectacular about the recovery at least until 2020.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global steel long-term outlook Q4 2015.pdf PDF - 1.64 MB
  • SMS LT Q4 2015(V1.3).xls XLS - 2.30 MB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Steel Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Interim forecast update: December 2015
      • The key changes since our last long term report published in September 2015 are as follows:
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