Commodity market report

Global steel long-term outlook Q4 2015

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Report summary

All the difficulties the steel industry has experienced in 2015 are here to stay. In the medium term we do not expect construction in China to return to growth or demand growth in Brazil and Russia to rebound. As a result exports from these countries will remain high leaving global utilisation rates to linger below 70%. In the next couple of years stock overhang poor demand growth and weak raw material prices will maintain steel prices at rock bottom. Only after 2017 do we expect prices to recover but there will be nothing spectacular about the recovery at least until 2020.

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    SMS LT Q4 2015(V1.3).xls

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