Commodity Market Report

Global steel long-term outlook Q4 2015

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14 December 2015

Global steel long-term outlook Q4 2015

Report summary

All the difficulties the steel industry has experienced in 2015 are here to stay. In the medium term, we do not expect construction in China to return to growth, or demand growth in Brazil and Russia to rebound. As a result, exports from these countries will remain high, leaving global utilisation rates to linger below 70%. In the next couple of years, stock overhang, poor demand growth, and weak raw material prices will maintain steel prices at rock bottom. Only after 2017 do we expect prices to recover, but there will be nothing spectacular about the recovery at least until 2020.

Table of contents

    • Interim forecast update: December 2015
      • The key changes since our last long term report published in September 2015 are as follows:

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This report contains:

  • Document

    Global steel long-term outlook Q4 2015.pdf

    PDF 1.64 MB

  • Document

    SMS LT Q4 2015(V1.3).xls

    XLS 2.30 MB

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