Commodity market report

Global steel long-term outlook Q4 2017

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Report summary

The Chinese government wielded the most influence on steel markets developments in 2017, first with the decision to close all induction furnace capacity, then with the forceful implementation of pollution controls affecting production. The resulting tightness, particularly pronounced in the rebar market, has supported very high prices and margins not only in China, but in the rest of the world where imports have increased while exports have fallen. Costs are likely to decline in the medium term, and will undermine prices. However, with the further change of gear to Chinese capacity cuts, the global market is now much less oversupplied and we expect margins to remain comfortable for steelmakers in the medium term.

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