Commodity Market Report

Global steel short-term outlook April 2019

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30 April 2019

Global steel short-term outlook April 2019

Report summary

Steel markets have continued to diverge in April: strong in China, weak in Europe, and hesitant in the US. In China, the government stimulus is starting to revive steel demand, with indicators pointing towards a resolution of the manufacturing crisis and a strengthening of the all-important construction sector. Meanwhile, the US and Europe have hit a soft patch. In the US, 232 tariffs pushed import competition downstream dampening the outlook for fabricators, an important component of real demand growth. In the EU, the deteriorating outlook in Italy and Poland is eroding construction confidence, manufacturing PMI is firmly pointing to contraction, and competition from troubled steelmakers in Turkey and Iran is dampening the price outlook.

Table of contents

    • Demand
    • Property steel demand grows robustly
    • Improved access to financing powers property investment
    • A relaxation of the household registration policy encourages home buying
    • Downside risks lie in land sales
    • Intensive infrastructure projects in the construction pipeline
    • Accelerated bonds issuance supports intensive construction activity
    • Manufacturing output expands on domestic demand recovery
    • Supply
    • Q1 production expands but momentum weaker than officially reported
    • Supply expansion in April accelerates on recovering steel margins
    • Surplus supply pressure yet to be felt
    • EU28 steel trade: exports continue to ease
    • Production: a slow start to the year
    • What is the future for US light machinery and metal fabrication?
    • Risk of rising environmental costs for US Steel

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

  • Location of the assets Liberty House has been cleared to purchase by the EC
  • China's construction momentum
  • Manufacturing and Steel PMI
  • China's crude steel production growth
  • China's EAF utilisation rates
  • EU28 external steel trade
  • EU28 steel exports
  • EU28 crude steel monthly output
  • German crude steel monthly output
  • US steel product imports
  • Steel cash cost of selected US steel mills
  • Quarterly steel prices, table and charts
  • Hot-rolled coil price forecast
  • Rebar price forecast
  • Costs summary
  • Chinese steelmakers margins
  • Turkish metallics consumption
  • EU scrap exports
  • Turkey billet exports
  • Global crude-steel production
  • Manufacturing purchasing managers index in key regions
  • China real steel demand indicators
  • China steel trade
  • Eurozone construction PMI
  • EU vehicle sales
  • India market structure
  • India metallics consumption
  • Turkey market structure
  • Iran market structure
  • Summary table

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global steel markets short-term outlook data April 2019.xls

    XLS 300.50 KB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook April 2019

    PDF 1.22 MB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook April 2019

    ZIP 1.27 MB