Will global steel demand experience a double digit decline this year? In this month’s steel markets short-term outlook we have proposed a slump scenario. An outlook where steel demand broadly mirrors the falls and recovery experienced during the 2009 global financial crisis. Initial data creeping in for March suggest the magnitude of our slump is feasible. This remains scenario analysis and not our base case. But the results are damning. A 200 million tonne reduction in annual finished steel demand is possible. Excluding China – where falls could be limited to the low single digits – we could see one fifth of 2019 finished steel demand lost this year.