Commodity market report
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18 Pages

Global steel short-term outlook August 2017

Global steel short-term outlook August 2017

Report summary

Global steel prices rallied this month. China saw both HR coil and rebar prices expand by 10% month-on-month. The rise means that Chinese HR coil is now more expensive than European HR coil. The last time we saw this was in April 2016 – a month when Chinese steel prices shot up over 20% only to quickly drop back in subsequent months. We expect history to repeat itself and the negative Europe – China spread will not be maintained. In the US, EU and China, the market is frothy – bolstered by sentiment. With prices elevated, global steelmakers are enjoying exceptional margins. They will still be enjoying large margins despite our forecast hefty price falls which we believe are due imminently.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global steel short-term outlook August 2017 PDF - 504.57 KB 18 Pages, 7 Tables, 27 Figures
  • Global steel markets short-term outlook data August 2017revised.xls XLS - 310.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Steel Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
    • Prices and other key data
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China: tightening environmental regulation has driven high production since Q3
      • The "2+26" policy action plan may support production
  • Costs
  • Key companies
    • Industry developments
      • Operating results
  • Market structure
    • Global
    • China
    • Europe
    • India
    • Japan
    • Brazil
    • Russia

In this report there are 34 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Demand in the construction sector will continue to weaken in H2
    • Tightening environmental regulation will give pressure to production in Q4, however, we still forecast it will be higher than last year
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Motor vehicle registrations are still in growth but the momentum is receding
    • Construction spending will not grow as quickly as initially anticipated
    • Imports have trumped protectionism
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
    • Chinese HR coil prices are currently higher than EU HR coil prices. We do not expect this to endure.
    • Chinese rebar prices remain elevated despite cooling house completions. A price correction is imminent.
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • Costs
    • Costs: Image 1
    • Costs: Image 2
    • Costs: Table 1
  • Key companies
    • EBITDA margin for selected steel makers (table and chart)
    • Key companies: Image 1
    • Key companies: Table 2
  • Market structure
    • Production growth inflated by IF closures
    • Mixed demand indicators
    • Apparent demand emerging economies
    • Apparent demand mature economies
    • European imports rise despite trade action on China
    • Auto industry continues to grow
    • Market structure: Image 7
    • Section 232 threat leaves import volumes unperturbed
    • India real steel demand indicators
    • India crude steel production
    • Production set to decline further in H2
    • Market structure: Image 12
    • Crude steel production growth slows
    • Domestic prices rise
    • Russia crude steel production
    • Russia steel exports
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