December gave us a first glimpse at the implications of policy implementation in China. We learned that the policy may not be what it seems. From afar, it looked like the zeal of enforcing local authority may curb production beyond expectations. But in a recent visit to Tangshan, we found nuances. Winter heating in northeastern China cities may be important to social peace and mills who provide it get a discount from capacity cuts. Large mills, efficient and compliant with regulation also get a discount on production cuts. In other words, there will be more steel and hot metal production in winter that we originally anticipated. And we are yet to get the first glimpse at the impact the environmental policies will have on economic performance. An abrupt slowdown may persuade authorities to reconsider the diligence with which they enforce the targets even further. The population will be grateful to the government for cleaner air. Much less grateful if cold and unemployed.