Commodity market report
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20 Pages

Global steel short-term outlook February 2016


Global steel short-term outlook February 2016

Report summary

In China, steel prices increased supported by post-New Year restocking, but as underlying demand remains weak further significant gains are unlikely. In February, government announced plans for steelmaking capacity reductions which include bans on capacity additions and stricter demolition schedules. As a result of these measure prices are likely to stabilise, rather than rise meaningfully.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global steel short-term outlook February 2016 PDF - 611.31 KB 20 Pages, 8 Tables, 25 Figures
  • SMS 2016 02 DataFile(V1.1).xls XLS - 305.50 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Steel Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China: outlook for 2016 weakens
      • Detailed steel industry reforms announced
      • It was not demand that supported steel prices in February
    • Europe: demand holds, prices rise
    • USA: things can only get better
      • Stocks will drive demand in 2016
      • Prices will remain under pressure
      • Opportunities are ripe far asset sales and mergers
  • Costs
    • Iron ore prices return above US$50/tonne, but the increase will be short lived
    • Spot coking coal prices edge up, but not enough to affect Q2 settlement
    • Scrap prices diverge again
  • Key companies
    • Industry developments
  • Market structure
    • Global
    • China
    • Europe
    • USA
    • India
    • Japan
    • Russia

In this report there are 33 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Prices and other key data
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China capacity will slowly decline in the medium term
    • With restocking momentum exhausted, rebar prices will stabilise
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
    • Announced changes to US capacity in 2015 and 2016
    • Steel and scrap prices (tables and charts)
    • HR coil producers have obtained some of the price rises they have been chasing since Q4 2015. Prices will most likely stabilise in the short term.
    • Restocking after Chinese New Year prompted a further rise of rebar prices. Demand fundamentals remain however weak everywhere bar the USA.
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • Costs
    • Iron ore stocks: post-holiday buying revived prices temporarily
    • Scrap to iron ore prices: scrap continues to be at a disadvantage to hot metal
    • Costs: Table 1
  • Key companies
    • EBITDA margin for selected steel makers (table and chart)
    • Key companies: Image 1
    • Operating results
  • Market structure
    • Global crude steel production fell…
    • Confidence in manufacturing growth…
    • Demand is weak across the emerging markets
    • Steel demand in mature economies…
    • A fall in steel inventories triggers buying
    • Steel exports start to decline
    • EU steel imports are increasing…
    • Market structure: Image 8
    • Flat product imports…
    • Long product imports will ease gradually…
    • Demand estimates differ for 2015…
    • Steelmakers to remain under pressure from imports
    • Japan's steel production continues to fall
    • Japan's steel stocks remain high
    • Market structure: Image 15
    • …and production
    • Key quarterly data
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