Over the coming months, much of the outlook for steel prices will depend on government policies rather than traditional supply-demand fundamentals. In China, steel prices will depend on the balancing act between further capacity reductions and government support for the steel-consuming sectors – for example, a possible continuation of tax cuts for the manufacturing sector. In the US, prices will be heavily affected by the expected NAFTA renegotiations and other possible import restrictions. Meanwhile in Europe, there is a possibility that the ruling on duties of HR coil imports from Russia and anti-dumping duties on rebar from Belarus, combined with stronger-than-expected steel demand, could provide some foothold for prices through H1. On balance we believe that easing raw material costs will gradually bring steel prices down. However, there is an underlying upside risk to our forecasts.