Commodity Market Report

Global steel short-term outlook January 2018

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01 February 2018

Global steel short-term outlook January 2018

Report summary

In China, rebar traders spent January adjusting to the realisation that the rebar market did not tighten as they had feared between mid-November and late December, when they pushed prices up in a vertical frenzy. As traders took stock of the weakening construction demand, average rebar prices fell US$90/tonne month-on-month. In part, demand weakened because of stricter controls on provincial spending; in part because of the winter slow-down; and in part as a result of the anti-pollution controls which mandated the halt of construction activities. Winter rigours also loosened the resolve of the Chinese regulators. In order to heat the population in the Northern cities, the authorities allowed the restart of blast furnaces, also increasing steel supply and undermining prices. We now expect prices to stabilise in the near term, until Lunar New Year is over, and we expect most of the further downward adjustment to prices to take place in Q2, after production controls are removed.

Table of contents

    • Key annual data
    • EU28
    • EU HDG imports continue despite anti-dumping duties
    • Infrastructure and energy key to construction demand
    • OCTG consumption will continue to rise supported by rising oil production
      • Section 232: widespread measures on steel imports are counterintuitive
      • Steel prices will continue to rise
    • Strong rebar prices support scrap
    • Blast furnace restarts rule iron ore
    • rebar price correction rules coking coal
    • Industry developments
    • Global
    • China
    • Europe
    • USA
    • India
    • Japan
    • Brazil
    • Russia

Tables and charts

This report includes 38 images and tables including:

  • Prices
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • EBITDA margin for selected steel makers
  • Steel production and shipments for selected steel makers
  • Key companies: Table 3
  • Executive summary: Table 2
  • AD duties against Chinese HDG steels have lowered, but not removed, the volume of imports
  • Passenger vehicle registrations are still growing – but they are slowing
  • Costs: Image 1
  • Costs: Image 2
  • Costs: Table 1
  • Market structure: Image 1
  • Demand indicators point to expansion
  • Apparent demand emerging economies
  • Apparent demand mature economies
  • Market structure: Image 5
  • Market structure: Image 6
  • Market structure: Image 7
  • Market structure: Image 8
  • Market structure: Image 9
  • Steel stocks to support steel demand
  • Market structure: Image 11
  • Market structure: Image 12
  • Market structure: Image 13
  • Market structure: Image 14
  • Market structure: Image 15
  • Market structure: Image 16
  • Market structure: Image 17
  • Market structure: Image 18
  • Summary Table
  • Steel contribution to GDP and employment is small
  • and it has been steadily declining
  • Quarterly prices, tables and charts
  • HRC prices are likely to benefit from strong manufacturing in Europe and the USA in H1 2018.
  • Strong construction, high costs and lower imports to support the EU rebar market in the near term.
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 3

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global steel markets short-term outlook data January 2018.xls

    XLS 319.50 KB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook January 2018

    PDF 531.25 KB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook January 2018

    ZIP 656.96 KB