Commodity Market Report

Global steel short-term outlook January 2019

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28 January 2019

Global steel short-term outlook January 2019

Report summary

Between falling steel prices, China's negative reading of manufacturing PMI, EU weakening economic performance, and US government shutdowns, in the first half of January it felt hopeless to maintain – as we do – a cautiously optimistic outlook on steel demand growth in 2019. Critical to this view is our belief that in China growth in government-supported infrastructure and auxiliary machinery will offset weakness across most other steel-consuming sectors in 2019. Similarly, in the US, 2019 looks like a strong year for non-residential construction. The Architectural Billing Index, the resumed government talk of a comprehensive infrastructure funding and even the infamous border wall with Mexico all point to growth in the sector. This construction strength is well timed, as the US automotive activity looks increasingly like slowing.

Table of contents

    • Demand
    • Property: sales and investment slow further
    • Infrastructure: firm policy support
    • Machinery: strong growth but slowing
    • Consumer goods: auto loses in the economic downturn
    • Supply
    • EU safeguarding measures - friend or foe?
    • Construction
    • Production
  • US
    • Steel prices are at their lowest
    • Capacity investment appetite is slowing
  • Brumadinho's dam collapse claims lives and triggers prosecutions
  • Coking coal prices weaken
  • China scrap appreciates in winter, but falling margins will eventually undermine it

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

  • Cash margins at low-cost China producers
  • Cash margins at high-cost China producers
  • Quarterly scrap and metallics prices
  • Annual scrap and metallics prices
  • Global crude steel production
  • Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index
  • Emerging economies steel consumption
  • Mature economies steel consumption
  • Construction activity in EU28
  • Machinery and equipment manufacturing in EU28
  • Japan real steel demand indicators
  • South Korea market structure
  • India hot-rolled coil market
  • Vietnam market structure
  • Summary table
  • Steelmakers are destocking as production growth falls
  • Steel stocks at mills and traders in the months of 2018
  • EU28 construction activity
  • EU crude steel utilisation and capacity
  • Quarterly prices, tables and charts
  • Hot-rolled coil price forecast
  • Rebar price forecast
  • Costs summary

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global steel markets short-term outlook data January 2019.xls

    XLS 304.50 KB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook January 2019

    ZIP 1.14 MB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook January 2019

    ZIP 1.74 MB